{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e43597-c706-410c-b5e2-e48e282369e5", "symbol": "PPA", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.255, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.505, "architecture_energy": 21.801, "architecture_maturity": 18.762, "architecture_confidence": 48.344, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.92, "rotation_up": 47.53, "upward_expansion": 47.59, "deceleration": 35.81, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.917333, 175.829788, 173.829115, 173.404416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 183.78, "trend_reference": 173.745817, "distance_from_trend": 0.057752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.666664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.450895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.682812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048899, "excess_performance": -0.076726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.450895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038948, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093372, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 860215, "relative_activity": 0.7799, "balance": 1.093372, "dry_up": 0.811327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046238, "annualized_volatility": 0.225225, "from_high_reference": -0.013247, "from_low_reference": 0.285421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 173.745817, "fair_value_reference": 126.666664, 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"activity_lines": [ 173.416141, 173.503731, 172.031328, 172.443734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.26, "volume": 1001810, "typical_volume": 1172072.15, "trend": 172.896801, "fair_value": 125.442287, "relative_strength": -0.855142, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.206289, "energy": 7.510637, "activity_lines": [ 173.796, 173.969585, 172.370837, 172.631388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.44, "volume": 931259, "typical_volume": 1119850.6, "trend": 173.341261, "fair_value": 126.027033, "relative_strength": -2.375793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.69645, "energy": 3.307862, "activity_lines": [ 173.896667, 174.089995, 172.658207, 172.730949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.78, "volume": 860215, "typical_volume": 1102981.5, "trend": 173.745817, "fair_value": 126.666664, "relative_strength": -0.682812, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.504868, "energy": 21.80125, "activity_lines": [ 176.917333, 175.829788, 173.829115, 173.404416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }