{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e8c93d-b5d5-4919-a31f-0d160a57d731", "symbol": "600558", "name": "Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.998, "architecture_energy": 69.615, "architecture_maturity": 38.166, "architecture_confidence": 88.155, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 14.55, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 68.92, "downward_expansion": 87.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.638836, 4.770983, 5.074558, 5.289463 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 5.613743, "distance_from_trend": -0.152081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.541884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.368274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243243, "excess_performance": -0.200039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048023, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104306, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58494055, "relative_activity": 0.995223, "balance": 0.532073, "dry_up": 1.034324, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069347, "annualized_volatility": 0.334011, "from_high_reference": -0.315108, "from_low_reference": 0.091334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.613743, "fair_value_reference": 4.541884, "structural_low": 4.361636, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030318, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001978, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.180851, "worst_return": -0.143061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107937, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030769, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.334356, "worst_return": -0.082942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.209147, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.180887, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.437309, "worst_return": -0.116826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-79.942826, "energy": 91.075208, "activity_lines": [ 4.601786, 4.897661, 5.191812, 5.412601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.693394, "volume": 57783623, "typical_volume": 60728093.05, "trend": 5.65841, "fair_value": 4.535002, "relative_strength": -13.516219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.395483, "energy": 85.388736, "activity_lines": [ 4.602323, 4.820116, 5.126188, 5.347425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 58494055, "typical_volume": 58774804.95, "trend": 5.613743, "fair_value": 4.541884, "relative_strength": -14.368274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.99824, "energy": 69.615381, "activity_lines": [ 4.638836, 4.770983, 5.074558, 5.289463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }