{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e94194-75df-476e-91ed-ad99d944e087", "symbol": "COCO", "name": "Vita Coco Company Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.188, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.58, "architecture_energy": 16.318, "architecture_maturity": 55.343, "architecture_confidence": 91.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.82, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 45.79, "deceleration": 87.34, "rotation_down": 42.81, "downward_expansion": 30.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.045333, 69.054, 69.908238, 66.71086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 62.25, "trend_reference": 62.673333, "distance_from_trend": -0.006755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.10875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.633483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.292097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055801, "excess_performance": -0.131653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.633483, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.458145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002921, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4494768, "relative_activity": 0.689407, "balance": 0.649994, "dry_up": 0.902428, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121262, "annualized_volatility": 0.665437, "from_high_reference": -0.274729, "from_low_reference": 0.950188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.673333, "fair_value_reference": 38.10875, "structural_low": 45.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.057055, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.076391, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.155202, "worst_return": -0.030488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.251172, "worst_return": -0.084104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18389, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.318598, "worst_return": -0.138011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.316386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105155, "active": false }, { "regime": 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60.944333, "fair_value": 37.058814, "relative_strength": 17.989872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.121304, "energy": 30.697859, "activity_lines": [ 72.780667, 74.549636, 69.295524, 65.398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.18, "volume": 5298798, "typical_volume": 6389270.9, "trend": 61.601, "fair_value": 37.361635, "relative_strength": 25.163973, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.58015, "energy": 25.009757, "activity_lines": [ 72.094667, 74.191636, 70.149952, 66.187398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.97, "volume": 7408583, "typical_volume": 6524079.65, "trend": 62.014667, "fair_value": 37.614455, "relative_strength": 13.901671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.507525, "energy": 22.754781, "activity_lines": [ 69.52, 72.494, 70.245714, 66.469269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.94, "volume": 6332322, "typical_volume": 6584549.8, "trend": 62.430667, "fair_value": 37.879583, "relative_strength": 12.388748, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.348108, "energy": 18.829193, "activity_lines": [ 68.138667, 71.017636, 70.270762, 66.722516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.25, "volume": 4494768, "typical_volume": 6519763.75, "trend": 62.673333, "fair_value": 38.10875, "relative_strength": 0.292097, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.580294, "energy": 16.317798, "activity_lines": [ 66.045333, 69.054, 69.908238, 66.71086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }