{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e97308-432c-40c8-b23b-07a6767af612", "symbol": "00927", "name": "CAPITAL INV TRUST CORP-TIP CSTM TW SEMICONDUCTOR DIV YIELD ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.446, "architecture_energy": 26.921, "architecture_maturity": 71.994, "architecture_confidence": 87.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.72, "rotation_up": 25.19, "upward_expansion": 58.68, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 33.69, "downward_expansion": 20.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.62903, 36.848956, 36.284986, 33.85138 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.540001, "trend_reference": 30.573972, "distance_from_trend": 0.162427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.424919, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.928909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.97253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.470585, "excess_performance": 0.091273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.928909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079725, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101828, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.470585, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67437731, "relative_activity": 0.601526, "balance": 0.566582, "dry_up": 1.526568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091692, "annualized_volatility": 0.439522, "from_high_reference": -0.153003, "from_low_reference": 1.246238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.573972, "fair_value_reference": 18.424919, "structural_low": 21.924537, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017382, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": 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"direction": 48.04335, "energy": 40.882678, "activity_lines": [ 37.368779, 37.994633, 35.937833, 33.182943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.490002, "volume": 166451551, "typical_volume": 110434985.25, "trend": 30.08048, "fair_value": 18.27307, "relative_strength": 7.784482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.345251, "energy": 23.842163, "activity_lines": [ 36.206992, 37.307795, 36.087391, 33.499152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.540001, "volume": 67437731, "typical_volume": 112111121.5, "trend": 30.573972, "fair_value": 18.424919, "relative_strength": 7.97253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.446042, "energy": 26.921295, "activity_lines": [ 35.62903, 36.848956, 36.284986, 33.85138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }