{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e9b6c2-6494-414a-81b5-d9a6e136b70f", "symbol": "601628", "name": "China Life Insurance Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.011, "architecture_energy": 22.583, "architecture_maturity": 14.055, "architecture_confidence": 62.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.95, "rotation_up": 45.67, "upward_expansion": 36.89, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 14.5, "downward_expansion": 42.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.158667, 38.03363, 36.835179, 37.611066 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.57, "trend_reference": 39.59766, "distance_from_trend": -0.025953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.619369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.965719, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224256, "excess_performance": -0.181052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207723339, "relative_activity": 1.482349, "balance": 0.762246, "dry_up": 1.612639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074822, "annualized_volatility": 0.333738, "from_high_reference": -0.257126, "from_low_reference": 0.200738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.59766, "fair_value_reference": 36.619369, "structural_low": 32.121906, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.037488, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.000369, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.192235, "worst_return": -0.17556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074665, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002603, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.096335, "worst_return": -0.122324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034261, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00397, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206114, "worst_return": -0.12288, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.436846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.109371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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"close": 40.310001, "volume": 238208718, "typical_volume": 129035375.4, "trend": 40.067327, "fair_value": 36.52511, "relative_strength": 2.071953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.605309, "energy": 27.722155, "activity_lines": [ 38.701253, 36.941259, 36.396368, 37.727581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.52, "volume": 173046597, "typical_volume": 134135752.1, "trend": 39.82866, "fair_value": 36.568074, "relative_strength": -0.182986, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.790125, "energy": 26.215382, "activity_lines": [ 39.25687, 37.625626, 36.655273, 37.69227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.57, "volume": 207723339, "typical_volume": 140131205.65, "trend": 39.59766, "fair_value": 36.619369, "relative_strength": -4.965719, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.011191, "energy": 22.582563, "activity_lines": [ 39.158667, 38.03363, 36.835179, 37.611066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }