{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60f26034-ab59-4c2c-9870-92c67bdd7144", "symbol": "XRLX", "name": "FUNDX INVT TR CONSERVATIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.073, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.562, "architecture_energy": 25.418, "architecture_maturity": 58.986, "architecture_confidence": 81.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.68, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 88.06, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 18.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.495193, 48.573464, 48.490895, 47.925711 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.2279, "trend_reference": 47.280587, "distance_from_trend": 0.041186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.198824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.468328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060809, "excess_performance": -0.064816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.548851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5008, "relative_activity": 0.679641, "balance": 4.548851, "dry_up": 0.562081, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018477, "annualized_volatility": 0.103488, "from_high_reference": -0.013667, "from_low_reference": 0.144393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.280587, "fair_value_reference": 42.198824, "structural_low": 43.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021567, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021567, "worst_return": 0.021567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.089936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089936, "worst_return": 0.089936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 44.242653, "energy": 31.042298, "activity_lines": [ 48.604693, 48.759944, 48.251715, 47.676783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.89, "volume": 1876, "typical_volume": 7564.2, "trend": 47.115977, "fair_value": 42.11024, "relative_strength": -4.098904, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.625032, "energy": 23.216554, "activity_lines": [ 48.315153, 48.592776, 48.294611, 47.730274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.1031, "volume": 8495, "typical_volume": 7480.3, "trend": 47.185747, "fair_value": 42.151007, "relative_strength": -4.553017, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.311027, "energy": 21.17107, "activity_lines": [ 48.20058, 48.47446, 48.346612, 47.79396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.2279, "volume": 5008, "typical_volume": 7368.6, "trend": 47.280587, "fair_value": 42.198824, "relative_strength": -5.468328, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.562479, "energy": 25.417853, "activity_lines": [ 48.495193, 48.573464, 48.490895, 47.925711 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }