{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6104f950-a661-40b1-9bd4-0aaa046ae411", "symbol": "SMTO3", "name": "S\u00e3o Martinho S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.487, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.683, "architecture_energy": 53.799, "architecture_maturity": 14.869, "architecture_confidence": 93.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.97, "rotation_up": 18.15, "upward_expansion": 9.51, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 59.46, "downward_expansion": 82.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.956667, 15.144652, 15.80627, 16.298339 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.77, "trend_reference": 16.611636, "distance_from_trend": -0.110864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.396519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.151348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021854, "excess_performance": 0.035194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340523, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8605500, "relative_activity": 0.966125, "balance": 0.642154, "dry_up": 0.876013, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079386, "annualized_volatility": 0.438352, "from_high_reference": -0.319355, "from_low_reference": 0.144074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.611636, "fair_value_reference": 22.396519, "structural_low": 13.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.02159, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.023204, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.106407, "worst_return": -0.196533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.032844, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.068373, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.208172, "worst_return": -0.204361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.185827, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.266239, "worst_return": -0.226471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 15.45, "volume": 7788800, "typical_volume": 10270055.0, "trend": 16.635636, "fair_value": 22.710339, "relative_strength": -11.01877, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.618045, "energy": 39.914517, "activity_lines": [ 15.534806, 15.732056, 16.415638, 16.655602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.05, "volume": 5126700, "typical_volume": 9538230.0, "trend": 16.625636, "fair_value": 22.61259, "relative_strength": -12.764833, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.35276, "energy": 39.696337, "activity_lines": [ 15.439795, 15.527891, 16.221928, 16.553303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.52, "volume": 9690400, "typical_volume": 9060105.0, "trend": 16.616303, "fair_value": 22.508615, "relative_strength": -16.94792, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.357468, "energy": 44.905766, "activity_lines": [ 15.146227, 15.285544, 15.99598, 16.417455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.77, "volume": 8605500, "typical_volume": 8907230.0, "trend": 16.611636, "fair_value": 22.396519, "relative_strength": -12.151348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.682679, "energy": 53.799108, "activity_lines": [ 14.956667, 15.144652, 15.80627, 16.298339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }