{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6106ce6e-52e0-4088-9ed2-0de85a1cf58e", "symbol": "PAY", "name": "Paymentus Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.284, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.227, "architecture_energy": 93.407, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.47, "rotation_up": 88.91, "upward_expansion": 98.53, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.06, "downward_expansion": 20.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.576667, 30.123091, 27.523571, 26.765892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 38.57, "trend_reference": 26.230667, "distance_from_trend": 0.470416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.574231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.508159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.992288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.554615, "excess_performance": 0.42899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.470416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068337, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.508159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.410133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.169923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.406388, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.554615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.749513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10245743, "relative_activity": 2.299995, "balance": 2.749513, "dry_up": 1.397704, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091278, "annualized_volatility": 0.559888, "from_high_reference": -0.148753, "from_low_reference": 0.917951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.230667, "fair_value_reference": 25.574231, "structural_low": 20.11, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130701, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.165514, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.012464, "worst_return": -0.160801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.21637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.144177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.470757, "worst_return": -0.038017, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.330799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.221797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.693193, "worst_return": -0.031595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.360238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.42488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.335989, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.98, "volume": 486652, "typical_volume": 354935.8, "trend": 9.654667, "fair_value": 17.342821, "relative_strength": 32.20086, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.868102, "energy": 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24.209091, 24.622714, 24.967462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.78, "volume": 3990219, "typical_volume": 3891413.4, "trend": 25.855, "fair_value": 25.157179, "relative_strength": -6.476378, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.155969, "energy": 39.59122, "activity_lines": [ 27.395333, 25.266, 25.09519, 25.22 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.87, "volume": 3415448, "typical_volume": 3882596.9, "trend": 25.768, "fair_value": 25.272692, "relative_strength": -8.538587, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.906269, "energy": 49.394272, "activity_lines": [ 28.380667, 26.100364, 25.455714, 25.414516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.1, "volume": 7253886, "typical_volume": 4089628.8, "trend": 25.955667, "fair_value": 25.420641, "relative_strength": 6.876155, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.211615, "energy": 76.145938, "activity_lines": [ 30.589333, 27.802182, 26.299905, 25.952065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.57, "volume": 10245743, "typical_volume": 4454680.15, "trend": 26.230667, "fair_value": 25.574231, "relative_strength": 16.992288, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.2273, "energy": 93.407366, "activity_lines": [ 33.576667, 30.123091, 27.523571, 26.765892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }