{ "ticker": { "uuid": "610a96f6-6741-4a6a-96c4-dfb66fcc361e", "symbol": "DIST", "name": "DistIT AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.902, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.364, "architecture_energy": 45.511, "architecture_maturity": 29.685, "architecture_confidence": 93.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 18.1, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 47.19, "rotation_down": 57.84, "downward_expansion": 79.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.152433, 0.156818, 0.166226, 0.172838 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.141, "trend_reference": 0.181017, "distance_from_trend": -0.221066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.323974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.939328, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.741716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293233, "excess_performance": -0.354727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.939328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100713, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293233, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1118656, "relative_activity": 1.604247, "balance": 0.225996, "dry_up": 1.471854, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161484, "annualized_volatility": 0.549616, "from_high_reference": -0.705637, "from_low_reference": 0.044444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.181017, "fair_value_reference": 2.323974, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.047564, "positive_rate": 0.386364, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": -0.043311, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.518423, "worst_return": -0.72636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.172043, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.201317, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.842308, "worst_return": -0.798326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.439708, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.409702, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.176904, "worst_return": -0.82383, "sufficient": true }, { 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-58.932654, "energy": 57.15029, "activity_lines": [ 0.161, 0.166455, 0.175326, 0.18026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.168, "volume": 104471, "typical_volume": 551944.0, "trend": 0.1842, "fair_value": 2.434538, "relative_strength": -24.205269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.00648, "energy": 34.101846, "activity_lines": [ 0.163133, 0.165918, 0.174, 0.179227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1605, "volume": 865350, "typical_volume": 580732.75, "trend": 0.1839, "fair_value": 2.397105, "relative_strength": -26.792893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.150321, "energy": 32.020766, "activity_lines": [ 0.162933, 0.164127, 0.172179, 0.177698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1505, "volume": 2016872, "typical_volume": 669353.05, "trend": 0.182933, "fair_value": 2.360249, "relative_strength": -30.407055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.322503, "energy": 36.117311, "activity_lines": [ 0.1589, 0.161155, 0.169545, 0.175543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.141, "volume": 1118656, "typical_volume": 697309.05, "trend": 0.181017, "fair_value": 2.323974, "relative_strength": -33.741716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.363916, "energy": 45.510803, "activity_lines": [ 0.152433, 0.156818, 0.166226, 0.172838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }