{ "ticker": { "uuid": "611186af-d110-44e5-a78b-8679abf948f9", "symbol": "CCCL", "name": "Consolidated Construction Consortium Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.847, "architecture_energy": 20.053, "architecture_maturity": 20.883, "architecture_confidence": 68.088, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.21, "rotation_up": 14.4, "upward_expansion": 13.84, "deceleration": 57.2, "rotation_down": 49.45, "downward_expansion": 61.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.66, 15.946, 15.859048, 15.876086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.35, "trend_reference": 16.034, "distance_from_trend": -0.042659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.926346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.47278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173398, "excess_performance": -0.129689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.128396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 832105, "relative_activity": 0.643159, "balance": 0.128396, "dry_up": 1.035928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101228, "annualized_volatility": 0.540331, "from_high_reference": -0.468306, "from_low_reference": 0.202978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.034, "fair_value_reference": 11.926346, "structural_low": 12.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.079073, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082838, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.294564, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057786, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.073873, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 10.246667, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086474, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 10.993333, "worst_return": -0.325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029709, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03822, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 11.353334, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 9.153333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024737, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.408344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107664, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.249324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087396, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 327899.55, "trend": 1.435, "fair_value": 1.286859, "relative_strength": -11.593779, "stage": 4, "regime": 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1438470.35, "trend": 16.234333, "fair_value": 11.655705, "relative_strength": -8.165786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.792209, "energy": 19.592932, "activity_lines": [ 16.527333, 16.037273, 15.925667, 15.989118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.88, "volume": 1003742, "typical_volume": 1353343.0, "trend": 16.162333, "fair_value": 11.747885, "relative_strength": -7.592278, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.974939, "energy": 10.194564, "activity_lines": [ 16.324, 16.077455, 15.935381, 15.966258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.49, "volume": 1831119, "typical_volume": 1350817.3, "trend": 16.075333, "fair_value": 11.837564, "relative_strength": -12.07142, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.655337, "energy": 14.328506, "activity_lines": [ 15.915333, 16.028909, 15.903381, 15.922882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.35, "volume": 832105, "typical_volume": 1293778.0, "trend": 16.034, "fair_value": 11.926346, "relative_strength": -13.47278, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.847444, "energy": 20.052672, "activity_lines": [ 15.66, 15.946, 15.859048, 15.876086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }