{ "ticker": { "uuid": "611335ef-870e-450d-a3bf-653dddd03f9f", "symbol": "603683", "name": "Shanghai Smith Adhesive New Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.174, "architecture_energy": 91.26, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.34, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.64, "downward_expansion": 95.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.286, 22.167553, 25.34262, 26.075086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.87, "trend_reference": 26.62535, "distance_from_trend": -0.403951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.009376, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.565033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.410913, "excess_performance": -0.367709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.403951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.974655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.410913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129118798, "relative_activity": 1.927707, "balance": 0.582182, "dry_up": 2.133903, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230027, "annualized_volatility": 0.817895, "from_high_reference": -0.566512, "from_low_reference": 0.192337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.62535, "fair_value_reference": 16.009376, "structural_low": 13.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.04605, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.005726, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.685714, "worst_return": -0.163618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.088753, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.100983, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.378628, "worst_return": -0.097622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.310209, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.155967, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.431732, "worst_return": -0.039176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 23.0, "volume": 51350606, "typical_volume": 52566973.4, "trend": 27.756349, "fair_value": 15.943338, "relative_strength": -12.598411, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.820967, "energy": 13.140172, "activity_lines": [ 28.051233, 29.171034, 28.99058, 28.422272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.8, "volume": 185955194, "typical_volume": 58522506.3, "trend": 27.356016, "fair_value": 15.966634, "relative_strength": -40.558434, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.120677, "energy": 53.099753, "activity_lines": [ 23.538582, 26.709571, 27.778339, 27.650895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.01, "volume": 205295124, "typical_volume": 63837232.25, "trend": 26.949016, "fair_value": 15.980424, "relative_strength": -47.275397, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.36271, "energy": 93.42761, "activity_lines": [ 19.55511, 24.149562, 26.43948, 26.789861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.87, "volume": 129118798, "typical_volume": 66980525.15, "trend": 26.62535, "fair_value": 16.009376, "relative_strength": -41.565033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.174259, "energy": 91.260364, "activity_lines": [ 17.286, 22.167553, 25.34262, 26.075086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }