{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61133ef9-9561-4ac6-a109-8440ef777d02", "symbol": "605099", "name": "CoCreation Grass Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.322, "architecture_energy": 49.361, "architecture_maturity": 31.844, "architecture_confidence": 94.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.74, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 7.71, "deceleration": 51.56, "rotation_down": 54.67, "downward_expansion": 81.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.889333, 32.116333, 35.612106, 37.421081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.18, "trend_reference": 39.240301, "distance_from_trend": -0.179925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.5707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.087622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25128, "excess_performance": -0.208076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.37873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6900424, "relative_activity": 0.377911, "balance": 0.541214, "dry_up": 0.584851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121669, "annualized_volatility": 0.596717, "from_high_reference": -0.410609, "from_low_reference": 0.094558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.240301, "fair_value_reference": 26.5707, "structural_low": 29.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.029127, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.012831, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.262661, "worst_return": -0.14901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086441, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061097, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.79663, "worst_return": -0.108873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045763, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.76171, "worst_return": -0.086611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.111592, "energy": 78.090305, "activity_lines": [ 32.414, 35.328649, 38.540754, 39.482513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.15, "volume": 7204406, "typical_volume": 19394379.0, "trend": 39.664967, "fair_value": 26.393353, "relative_strength": -14.416218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.700504, "energy": 78.588373, "activity_lines": [ 31.524666, 33.768612, 37.576092, 38.855096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 15580538, "typical_volume": 19204168.8, "trend": 39.434967, "fair_value": 26.45268, "relative_strength": -12.35063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.115811, "energy": 66.599585, "activity_lines": [ 31.31, 32.745056, 36.784573, 38.308969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.849998, "volume": 13030694, "typical_volume": 19061793.15, "trend": 39.357301, "fair_value": 26.514666, "relative_strength": -8.076788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.577072, "energy": 55.9373, "activity_lines": [ 31.753333, 32.405718, 36.211149, 37.884132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.18, "volume": 6900424, "typical_volume": 18259379.5, "trend": 39.240301, "fair_value": 26.5707, "relative_strength": -12.087622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.322314, "energy": 49.361188, "activity_lines": [ 31.889333, 32.116333, 35.612106, 37.421081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }