{ "ticker": { "uuid": "611ae556-6495-4a20-98bd-1b9528112acf", "symbol": "XWD1", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Swap UCITS ETF 1D USD", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.665, "architecture_energy": 69.685, "architecture_maturity": 97.151, "architecture_confidence": 82.073, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 58.32, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.31, "rotation_down": 28.63, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.955667, 25.835927, 25.444676, 24.914961 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.472, "trend_reference": 24.293814, "distance_from_trend": 0.08966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.474947, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292897, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.363319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144124, "excess_performance": 0.079485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040967, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043633, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144124, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.28181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29065, "relative_activity": 0.810562, "balance": 5.28181, "dry_up": 0.591844, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01681, "annualized_volatility": 0.108598, "from_high_reference": -0.000415, "from_low_reference": 0.244962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.293814, "fair_value_reference": 20.474947, "structural_low": 22.040001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.015178, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002842, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.066644, "worst_return": -0.082736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057002, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.03861, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.100421, "worst_return": -0.151432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087095, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.041361, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152832, "worst_return": -0.049606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 25.790001, "volume": 11334, "typical_volume": 37990.9, "trend": 24.10243, "fair_value": 20.343216, "relative_strength": 7.118093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.199857, "energy": 65.460509, "activity_lines": [ 25.785267, 25.681655, 25.174729, 24.673302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.569, "volume": 24184, "typical_volume": 36164.75, "trend": 24.192844, "fair_value": 20.405826, "relative_strength": 3.782426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.719515, "energy": 60.90878, "activity_lines": [ 25.723534, 25.679327, 25.272791, 24.767919 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.472, "volume": 29065, "typical_volume": 35857.85, "trend": 24.293814, "fair_value": 20.474947, "relative_strength": 4.363319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.664664, "energy": 69.685395, "activity_lines": [ 25.955667, 25.835927, 25.444676, 24.914961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }