{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "611e57dc-5a10-45e8-a5d1-ad2bf894fec7",
    "symbol": "3145",
    "name": "ChinaAMC Asia High Dividend ETF",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 73.574,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 18.338,
    "architecture_energy": 27.656,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.414,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.805,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.11,
        "rotation_up": 62.7,
        "upward_expansion": 34.27,
        "deceleration": 37.66,
        "rotation_down": 12.33,
        "downward_expansion": 21.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.702,
        14.451163,
        14.493064,
        14.545904
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 14.94,
    "trend_reference": 14.557435,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.02628,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 11.389101,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31178,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.898383,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.045166,
    "excess_performance": 0.078747,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02628,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028144,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.31178,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060484,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078984,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017372,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045166,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.19129,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4179728,
      "relative_activity": 1.080207,
      "balance": 3.19129,
      "dry_up": 1.178242,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.028011,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.150712,
      "from_high_reference": -0.04387,
      "from_low_reference": 0.209636
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.557435,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.389101,
      "structural_low": 13.404324,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.005528,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016463,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.067969,
        "worst_return": -0.104869,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.020716,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.06527,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.124894,
        "worst_return": -0.097856,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.075076,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.103672,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.200022,
        "worst_return": -0.101234,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.233047,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.20505,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.359239,
        "worst_return": -0.088623,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.079365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.029623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015058,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02144,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.002553,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.096532,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04503,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.255085,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014784,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02628,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083985,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006061,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 8.423491,
        "volume": 143600,
        "typical_volume": 29940.0,
        "trend": 8.669124,
        "fair_value": 8.691275,
        "relative_strength": 8.407603,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": -14.428682,
        "energy": 10.222503,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 3502461.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 4033705.95,
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        "energy": 34.497399,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 4064669.05,
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        "relative_strength": 13.332256,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 57.323683,
        "energy": 46.274361,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 4038600.5,
        "trend": 14.210205,
        "fair_value": 11.067587,
        "relative_strength": 12.743286,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.239569,
        "energy": 39.016573,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 14.516385,
        "volume": 733200,
        "typical_volume": 3987160.5,
        "trend": 14.251996,
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        "relative_strength": 11.66756,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 11.139885,
        "relative_strength": 12.384629,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 10.642669,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 14.308882,
        "fair_value": 11.170826,
        "relative_strength": 12.72354,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -46.995139,
        "energy": 54.065998,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 14.059646,
        "volume": 2025000,
        "typical_volume": 3884004.25,
        "trend": 14.338013,
        "fair_value": 11.206105,
        "relative_strength": 13.325494,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.193631,
        "energy": 55.748865,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 14.06,
        "volume": 7378004,
        "typical_volume": 4207459.45,
        "trend": 14.369383,
        "fair_value": 11.239343,
        "relative_strength": 9.164204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.064842,
        "energy": 61.974365,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.18,
        "volume": 5465196,
        "typical_volume": 4150019.25,
        "trend": 14.405721,
        "fair_value": 11.273692,
        "relative_strength": 8.034788,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.68289,
        "energy": 57.393445,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.038298,
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          14.40697,
          14.475428
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.67,
        "volume": 3638348,
        "typical_volume": 3918791.65,
        "trend": 14.454519,
        "fair_value": 11.30999,
        "relative_strength": 9.579428,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -1.143408,
        "energy": 9.437201,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.26018,
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          14.420279,
          14.492478
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.85,
        "volume": 4952970,
        "typical_volume": 3850408.7,
        "trend": 14.507382,
        "fair_value": 11.348662,
        "relative_strength": 6.670069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.023548,
        "energy": 17.403394,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.509976,
          14.347882,
          14.45262,
          14.517993
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.94,
        "volume": 4179728,
        "typical_volume": 3869375.1,
        "trend": 14.557435,
        "fair_value": 11.389101,
        "relative_strength": 7.898383,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 18.338479,
        "energy": 27.655603,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.702,
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          14.493064,
          14.545904
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}