{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6125b792-f237-462c-b0fe-09f7076b5bdc", "symbol": "VMC", "name": "Venus Metals Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.41, "architecture_energy": 17.237, "architecture_maturity": 37.943, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.25, "rotation_up": 21.7, "upward_expansion": 51.91, "deceleration": 90.91, "rotation_down": 26.94, "downward_expansion": 17.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.252667, 0.257356, 0.25197, 0.24678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.255, "trend_reference": 0.239231, "distance_from_trend": 0.065917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.128615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.982664, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.083342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.275, "excess_performance": 0.211294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124028, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.982664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200833, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.522024, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000139, "relative_activity": 1.51474, "balance": 2.522024, "dry_up": 1.021423, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077607, "annualized_volatility": 0.585535, "from_high_reference": -0.15, "from_low_reference": 1.684211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.239231, "fair_value_reference": 0.128615, "structural_low": 0.19, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016724, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.319795, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06153, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066599, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.097409, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030841, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.120137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.406199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.323252, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.090909, "worst_return": -0.278512, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.262626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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22.097851, "activity_lines": [ 0.25605, 0.258915, 0.249093, 0.243438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.255, "volume": 873285, "typical_volume": 686187.7, "trend": 0.236064, "fair_value": 0.127012, "relative_strength": 30.373482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.563519, "energy": 23.63999, "activity_lines": [ 0.253256, 0.259244, 0.250298, 0.244778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 559722, "typical_volume": 650775.15, "trend": 0.237897, "fair_value": 0.127846, "relative_strength": 23.16107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.363245, "energy": 20.781605, "activity_lines": [ 0.251128, 0.258209, 0.250908, 0.245677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.255, "volume": 1000139, "typical_volume": 660271.05, "trend": 0.239231, "fair_value": 0.128615, "relative_strength": 20.083342, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.409729, "energy": 17.236582, "activity_lines": [ 0.252667, 0.257356, 0.25197, 0.24678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }