{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "612c477f-fd6c-4091-b42f-b7c98d052930",
    "symbol": "NZX",
    "name": "NZX Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 60.524,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.942,
    "architecture_energy": 79.801,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.925,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.291,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.35,
        "rotation_up": 75.14,
        "upward_expansion": 92.43,
        "deceleration": 44.77,
        "rotation_down": 8.72,
        "downward_expansion": 19.09
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.497667,
        1.470364,
        1.433143,
        1.416363
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1.495,
    "trend_reference": 1.408295,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.061567,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.263266,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18344,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.494728,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.082615,
    "excess_performance": 0.054341,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061567,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011166,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.18344,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044288,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014947,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038064,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082615,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.911259,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 855679,
      "relative_activity": 0.60912,
      "balance": 3.911259,
      "dry_up": 1.071828,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031644,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.162674,
      "from_high_reference": -0.033502,
      "from_low_reference": 0.172549
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.408295,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.263266,
      "structural_low": 1.275,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": -0.0091,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004927,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.159663,
        "worst_return": -0.081169,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.024064,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009845,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.221464,
        "worst_return": -0.092321,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.028766,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056861,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.25708,
        "worst_return": -0.037071,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.116454,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.115772,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.373653,
        "worst_return": -0.140745,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.070313,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.136443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.088435,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.058442,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-02",
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        "return": 0.039999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.022727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003534,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
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        "return": -0.061911,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.033835,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
      }
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1310972.95,
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        "relative_strength": -1.519959,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.680921,
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          1.424333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.51,
        "volume": 1527720,
        "typical_volume": 1359200.85,
        "trend": 1.409069,
        "fair_value": 1.254441,
        "relative_strength": 3.310674,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 60.244344,
        "energy": 71.483471,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.456,
          1.424818,
          1.401585,
          1.398445
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.52,
        "volume": 2701432,
        "typical_volume": 1404683.1,
        "trend": 1.409639,
        "fair_value": 1.257371,
        "relative_strength": 3.471834,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 57.143576,
        "energy": 76.44332,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.483333,
          1.446091,
          1.414411,
          1.405602
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.49,
        "volume": 937894,
        "typical_volume": 1422200.75,
        "trend": 1.408558,
        "fair_value": 1.26033,
        "relative_strength": 2.068455,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.400793,
        "energy": 81.154212,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.492,
          1.458818,
          1.423833,
          1.410786
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.495,
        "volume": 855679,
        "typical_volume": 1404779.1,
        "trend": 1.408295,
        "fair_value": 1.263266,
        "relative_strength": 1.494728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.941539,
        "energy": 79.800979,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.497667,
          1.470364,
          1.433143,
          1.416363
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}