{ "ticker": { "uuid": "612e9667-6174-4d8d-a5cd-5bf0ab4ac15b", "symbol": "BTS", "name": "BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.574, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.138, "architecture_energy": 9.241, "architecture_maturity": 19.709, "architecture_confidence": 55.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.05, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 28.86, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 32.52, "downward_expansion": 48.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.110667, 2.110545, 2.095143, 2.108559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.08, "trend_reference": 2.146, "distance_from_trend": -0.030755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.497564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.537527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.160994, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054545, "excess_performance": -0.24687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.537527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045154, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.535115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212573500, "relative_activity": 1.124117, "balance": 2.535115, "dry_up": 1.868939, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047337, "annualized_volatility": 0.419296, "from_high_reference": -0.412429, "from_low_reference": 0.050505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.146, "fair_value_reference": 4.497564, "structural_low": 1.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.028037, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.008993, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.159274, "worst_return": -0.190164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071038, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.00119, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.30531, "worst_return": -0.360656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026694, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.007885, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.063958, "worst_return": -0.401379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.148191, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.085001, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.016662, "worst_return": -0.629091, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.098388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024194, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", 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2.133333, 2.105091, 2.090381, 2.119054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.08, "volume": 294176000, "typical_volume": 187019890.0, "trend": 2.154, "fair_value": 4.565641, "relative_strength": -30.740565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.745754, "energy": 13.668058, "activity_lines": [ 2.118667, 2.104, 2.09019, 2.113935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.14, "volume": 271193000, "typical_volume": 188901095.0, "trend": 2.149333, "fair_value": 4.530385, "relative_strength": -26.763994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.348092, "energy": 10.75807, "activity_lines": [ 2.126667, 2.113818, 2.095714, 2.113032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.08, "volume": 212573500, "typical_volume": 189102660.0, "trend": 2.146, "fair_value": 4.497564, "relative_strength": -27.160994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.138258, "energy": 9.240614, "activity_lines": [ 2.110667, 2.110545, 2.095143, 2.108559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }