{ "ticker": { "uuid": "612e99b7-7a50-4213-98d9-d5eb65cba2cc", "symbol": "3141", "name": "Ultra Chip, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.037, "architecture_energy": 21.718, "architecture_maturity": 56.333, "architecture_confidence": 82.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.6, "rotation_up": 32.04, "upward_expansion": 56.8, "deceleration": 87.16, "rotation_down": 24.96, "downward_expansion": 18.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.093335, 71.385456, 69.917858, 64.859033 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 71.800003, "trend_reference": 58.740001, "distance_from_trend": 0.222336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.594917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.980248, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.613483, "excess_performance": 0.172111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.222336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.613483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.956671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4563482, "relative_activity": 0.498442, "balance": 1.956671, "dry_up": 0.496846, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158132, "annualized_volatility": 0.683547, "from_high_reference": -0.156287, "from_low_reference": 0.820025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.740001, "fair_value_reference": 71.594917, "structural_low": 40.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.096296, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.080063, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019467, "worst_return": -0.213441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040759, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.112795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369506, "worst_return": -0.257757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.238685, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.237871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.065612, "worst_return": -0.474159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"relative_strength": -9.363442, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.163125, "energy": 26.085749, "activity_lines": [ 69.206668, 71.614546, 66.969524, 61.956775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.800003, "volume": 3263402, "typical_volume": 8658714.8, "trend": 57.045001, "fair_value": 71.898927, "relative_strength": -6.666602, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.071398, "energy": 21.975673, "activity_lines": [ 67.366669, 70.223637, 67.46262, 62.551506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.0, "volume": 8027159, "typical_volume": 8984599.9, "trend": 57.988334, "fair_value": 71.754653, "relative_strength": 9.865589, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.023061, "energy": 24.946846, "activity_lines": [ 70.306668, 71.443637, 69.112382, 63.967958 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 71.800003, "volume": 4563482, "typical_volume": 9155489.2, "trend": 58.740001, "fair_value": 71.594917, "relative_strength": -2.980248, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.037454, "energy": 21.717923, "activity_lines": [ 71.093335, 71.385456, 69.917858, 64.859033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }