{ "ticker": { "uuid": "612efdcb-f744-4221-9815-6df04193f83d", "symbol": "Z77", "name": "Singapore Telecommunications Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.554, "architecture_energy": 41.49, "architecture_maturity": 38.186, "architecture_confidence": 86.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.42, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 5.67, "deceleration": 54.26, "rotation_down": 39.64, "downward_expansion": 72.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.378667, 4.388182, 4.449095, 4.553011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.29, "trend_reference": 4.645667, "distance_from_trend": -0.076559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.489808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229294, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.86175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093023, "excess_performance": -0.247858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093023, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 406290, "relative_activity": 0.429555, "balance": 0.542894, "dry_up": 0.473209, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039089, "annualized_volatility": 0.184362, "from_high_reference": -0.184411, "from_low_reference": 0.097187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.645667, "fair_value_reference": 3.489808, "structural_low": 4.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01233, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.007316, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.1125, "worst_return": -0.020921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031328, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.030421, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09292, "worst_return": -0.012397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013199, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.020157, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.085938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084416, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.280488, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.43, "volume": 525730, "typical_volume": 994749.5, "trend": 4.661, "fair_value": 3.454103, "relative_strength": -16.327742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.200255, "energy": 30.497964, "activity_lines": [ 4.424667, 4.402727, 4.520095, 4.607054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.4, "volume": 370240, "typical_volume": 977054.0, "trend": 4.655667, "fair_value": 3.465321, "relative_strength": -17.784045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.337703, "energy": 31.755923, "activity_lines": [ 4.42, 4.396182, 4.496, 4.590215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 488060, "typical_volume": 968096.5, "trend": 4.651, "fair_value": 3.478141, "relative_strength": -17.379637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.14503, "energy": 29.854494, "activity_lines": [ 4.424667, 4.404364, 4.478476, 4.576301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.29, "volume": 406290, "typical_volume": 945839.0, "trend": 4.645667, "fair_value": 3.489808, "relative_strength": -20.86175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.554, "energy": 41.489716, "activity_lines": [ 4.378667, 4.388182, 4.449095, 4.553011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }