{ "ticker": { "uuid": "612f0bac-5c37-4595-9a37-e1f1b807fb78", "symbol": "300055", "name": "Beijing WBD New Materials Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.087, "architecture_energy": 80.553, "architecture_maturity": 27.522, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 19.41, "deceleration": 38.91, "rotation_down": 64.38, "downward_expansion": 92.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.692, 6.032866, 7.437005, 8.202888 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.97, "trend_reference": 8.745207, "distance_from_trend": -0.31734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.263728, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.59176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233633, "excess_performance": -0.241033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.31734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.816801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.251968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75189998, "relative_activity": 0.705456, "balance": 0.251968, "dry_up": 0.965181, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154371, "annualized_volatility": 0.661607, "from_high_reference": -0.54497, "from_low_reference": 0.196393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.745207, "fair_value_reference": 6.263728, "structural_low": 4.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005383, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.006546, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.168514, "worst_return": -0.232406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.05604, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.033527, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.427136, "worst_return": -0.282411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.153374, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.061576, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.190301, "worst_return": -0.305797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.972169, "energy": 92.995363, "activity_lines": [ 6.010796, 6.868729, 8.430998, 8.825014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.38, "volume": 130699019, "typical_volume": 118527675.7, "trend": 8.887207, "fair_value": 6.28307, "relative_strength": -32.876649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.18351, "energy": 90.763863, "activity_lines": [ 5.693665, 6.452181, 8.046635, 8.594184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.67, "volume": 109072583, "typical_volume": 109329415.0, "trend": 8.817873, "fair_value": 6.272087, "relative_strength": -27.880853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.932261, "energy": 86.434975, "activity_lines": [ 5.620667, 6.175195, 7.715463, 8.386622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.97, "volume": 75189998, "typical_volume": 106583565.05, "trend": 8.745207, "fair_value": 6.263728, "relative_strength": -27.59176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.086701, "energy": 80.55335, "activity_lines": [ 5.692, 6.032866, 7.437005, 8.202888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }