{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61343c83-426c-42de-8137-863cb2cbb9a7", "symbol": "UQLTE", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Quality Screened UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.445, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.457, "architecture_energy": 70.277, "architecture_maturity": 73.96, "architecture_confidence": 70.356, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 59.11, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.19, "rotation_down": 28.24, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.329333, 53.038727, 52.237238, 51.081183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.639999, "trend_reference": 49.871667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.090545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298154, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.13926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131614, "excess_performance": -0.039277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034373, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1516, "relative_activity": 0.467548, "balance": 1.137259, "dry_up": 1.542584, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017781, "annualized_volatility": 0.140576, "from_high_reference": -0.012827, "from_low_reference": 0.249485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.871667, "fair_value_reference": 42.090545, "structural_low": 43.855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.017792, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": -0.002596, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.065018, "worst_return": -0.07985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016987, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010284, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.144122, "worst_return": -0.08984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076573, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.003431, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.173034, "worst_return": -0.219015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 49.408834, "fair_value": 41.700064, "relative_strength": -3.082758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.030801, "energy": 75.093514, "activity_lines": [ 52.91, 52.658546, 51.372167, 50.37542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.25, "volume": 8557, "typical_volume": 3407.95, "trend": 49.534, "fair_value": 41.81968, "relative_strength": -4.154066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.30321, "energy": 64.012951, "activity_lines": [ 52.734, 52.631273, 51.597715, 50.558721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.68, "volume": 4234, "typical_volume": 3361.65, "trend": 49.687834, "fair_value": 41.94641, "relative_strength": -3.923054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.411457, "energy": 60.247606, "activity_lines": [ 52.734, 52.663637, 51.840357, 50.761689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.639999, "volume": 1516, "typical_volume": 3242.45, "trend": 49.871667, "fair_value": 42.090545, "relative_strength": -3.13926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.456896, "energy": 70.27727, "activity_lines": [ 53.329333, 53.038727, 52.237238, 51.081183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }