{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6134cae7-5f4c-4079-a185-7ec16523dbec", "symbol": "VFC", "name": "VF Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.689, "architecture_energy": 61.588, "architecture_maturity": 30.405, "architecture_confidence": 87.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.61, "rotation_up": 12.92, "upward_expansion": 13.14, "deceleration": 38.3, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 86.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.603333, 16.168173, 16.792301, 17.153296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.99, "trend_reference": 17.740991, "distance_from_trend": -0.155064, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.295466, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.836132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255057, "excess_performance": -0.380682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.629844, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41677707, "relative_activity": 1.150567, "balance": 1.629844, "dry_up": 1.210135, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110737, "annualized_volatility": 0.487063, "from_high_reference": -0.323203, "from_low_reference": 0.309517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.740991, "fair_value_reference": 16.295466, "structural_low": 14.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.019909, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.0435, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.414354, "worst_return": -0.334179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.015925, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.03001, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.309941, "worst_return": -0.359982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.198319, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.230087, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.384255, "worst_return": -0.336363, 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"activity_lines": [ 16.897333, 16.96789, 17.391528, 17.718609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.98, "volume": 28975339, "typical_volume": 33700354.65, "trend": 18.060163, "fair_value": 16.353072, "relative_strength": -6.344135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.115705, "energy": 30.164477, "activity_lines": [ 16.863333, 16.944795, 17.341175, 17.645823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.03, "volume": 33471089, "typical_volume": 34029949.05, "trend": 18.017762, "fair_value": 16.345267, "relative_strength": -5.764233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.900493, "energy": 32.449782, "activity_lines": [ 16.89, 16.965273, 17.306214, 17.579361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.32, "volume": 71217767, "typical_volume": 35583262.15, "trend": 17.89624, "fair_value": 16.321813, "relative_strength": -21.656811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.416909, "energy": 56.675246, "activity_lines": [ 16.033333, 16.485006, 17.013655, 17.340795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.99, "volume": 41677707, "typical_volume": 36223629.35, "trend": 17.740991, "fair_value": 16.295466, "relative_strength": -20.836132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689198, "energy": 61.588225, "activity_lines": [ 15.603333, 16.168173, 16.792301, 17.153296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }