{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6135772c-7dd9-45d2-a0c1-d25e34fca2e3", "symbol": "ENG", "name": "Enag\u00e1s, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.191, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.663, "architecture_energy": 38.077, "architecture_maturity": 41.812, "architecture_confidence": 51.652, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 37.47, "upward_expansion": 66.34, "deceleration": 70.38, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.003333, 17.016116, 16.8847, 16.613959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.879999, "trend_reference": 16.071513, "distance_from_trend": 0.050306, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.447266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255274, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.910641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170191, "excess_performance": -0.004056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050306, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046671, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.238095, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021646, "annualized_volatility": 0.259177, "from_high_reference": -0.038724, "from_low_reference": 0.335918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.071513, "fair_value_reference": 13.447266, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006106, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000791, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05396, "worst_return": -0.042228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036635, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105983, "worst_return": -0.22666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113197, "worst_return": -0.149566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00397, 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"2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006719, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033159, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052771, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -3.069572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.57615, "energy": 47.538208, "activity_lines": [ 16.92966, 16.92251, 16.752016, 16.371715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.25, "trend": 15.84568, "fair_value": 13.402157, "relative_strength": -0.917382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.15801, "energy": 57.470477, "activity_lines": [ 17.095333, 17.044839, 16.846252, 16.48709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.25, "trend": 15.967847, "fair_value": 13.425539, "relative_strength": -4.113666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.226554, "energy": 44.166852, "activity_lines": [ 17.046666, 17.034524, 16.870845, 16.555111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.25, "trend": 16.071513, "fair_value": 13.447266, "relative_strength": -6.910641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.662593, "energy": 38.077161, "activity_lines": [ 17.003333, 17.016116, 16.8847, 16.613959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }