{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61421684-0646-43ca-b306-20a4e6954d29", "symbol": "DCMSHRIRAM", "name": "DCM Shriram Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.905, "architecture_energy": 40.19, "architecture_maturity": 25.402, "architecture_confidence": 88.991, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.77, "rotation_up": 20.65, "upward_expansion": 5.41, "deceleration": 47.46, "rotation_down": 52.37, "downward_expansion": 78.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 1020.968221, 1026.342565, 1058.803116, 1072.685497 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1016.799988, "trend_reference": 1089.798657, "distance_from_trend": -0.066984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1075.118639, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.726321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122541, "excess_performance": -0.078831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054244, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.693262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 392956, "relative_activity": 0.951972, "balance": 1.693262, "dry_up": 2.395897, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062904, "annualized_volatility": 0.285012, "from_high_reference": -0.276712, "from_low_reference": 0.075865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1089.798657, "fair_value_reference": 1075.118639, "structural_low": 945.099976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01978, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.014571, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.09807, "worst_return": -0.119375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04867, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.000472, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.146486, "worst_return": -0.077651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015165, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067276, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.219751, "worst_return": -0.122177, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.371002, "energy": 46.042073, "activity_lines": [ 1033.450627, 1039.088492, 1079.696581, 1089.152731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1001.989807, "volume": 198870, "typical_volume": 286473.25, "trend": 1102.43893, "fair_value": 1072.867385, "relative_strength": -10.055588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.503905, "energy": 47.577609, "activity_lines": [ 1021.628463, 1030.017884, 1071.310937, 1082.161103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1033.900024, "volume": 3051665, "typical_volume": 414810.95, "trend": 1095.132973, "fair_value": 1074.125257, "relative_strength": -9.048764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.087733, "energy": 34.926471, "activity_lines": [ 1023.890381, 1029.025682, 1065.908695, 1077.739238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1016.799988, "volume": 392956, "typical_volume": 412781.0, "trend": 1089.798657, "fair_value": 1075.118639, "relative_strength": -10.726321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.905113, "energy": 40.189996, "activity_lines": [ 1020.968221, 1026.342565, 1058.803116, 1072.685497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }