{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61516908-c140-449c-adf0-06cc43ab42d3", "symbol": "1463", "name": "CS Group Investment Holding Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.845, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.23, "architecture_energy": 12.031, "architecture_maturity": 6.827, "architecture_confidence": 73.559, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.25, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 34.55, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 52.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.806666, 17.789091, 17.824047, 17.869032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.799999, "trend_reference": 17.88, "distance_from_trend": -0.004474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.576708, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.54716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011111, "excess_performance": -0.452483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019109, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268482, "relative_activity": 0.619866, "balance": 0.8999, "dry_up": 0.9263, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031115, "annualized_volatility": 0.118881, "from_high_reference": -0.110506, "from_low_reference": 0.078788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.88, "fair_value_reference": 18.576708, "structural_low": 16.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002793, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.001724, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.093567, "worst_return": -0.060847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003584, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.023113, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.066729, "worst_return": -0.030717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061803, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.073253, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.324581, "worst_return": -0.05802, "sufficient": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.85, "volume": 411129, "typical_volume": 445576.15, "trend": 17.948334, "fair_value": 18.485702, "relative_strength": -29.621539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.961529, "energy": 13.505792, "activity_lines": [ 17.793333, 17.751818, 17.849762, 17.886129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.85, "volume": 656214, "typical_volume": 453235.3, "trend": 17.895, "fair_value": 18.518617, "relative_strength": -27.87636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.691047, "energy": 13.462903, "activity_lines": [ 17.826667, 17.77, 17.84381, 17.879785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 269004, "typical_volume": 439358.0, "trend": 17.871667, "fair_value": 18.548372, "relative_strength": -29.0005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.093109, "energy": 2.787388, "activity_lines": [ 17.816666, 17.78, 17.833571, 17.873656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 268482, "typical_volume": 433128.85, "trend": 17.88, "fair_value": 18.576708, "relative_strength": -30.54716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.230154, "energy": 12.031185, "activity_lines": [ 17.806666, 17.789091, 17.824047, 17.869032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }