{ "ticker": { "uuid": "615adefd-4760-4bd0-9a9c-53f75b80b0a3", "symbol": "DOC", "name": "DO & CO Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.697, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.154, "architecture_energy": 23.913, "architecture_maturity": 51.819, "architecture_confidence": 74.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.8, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 55.98, "deceleration": 90.53, "rotation_down": 30.41, "downward_expansion": 19.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.895484, 206.48464, 199.979806, 195.912824 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 194.113014, "distance_from_trend": 0.056086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 166.985922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227648, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.418952, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032226, "excess_performance": -0.142021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.091183, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70631, "relative_activity": 0.814166, "balance": 1.091183, "dry_up": 0.902319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060539, "annualized_volatility": 0.412516, "from_high_reference": -0.133192, "from_low_reference": 0.28125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.113014, "fair_value_reference": 166.985922, "structural_low": 160.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028951, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.041421, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.092846, "worst_return": -0.206776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019612, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163569, "worst_return": -0.115635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115677, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.090573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312454, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139753, "active": false }, { "regime": 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194.912603, "fair_value": 164.866621, "relative_strength": -15.42301, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.45217, "energy": 67.881223, "activity_lines": [ 215.377752, 206.724667, 195.300655, 194.058319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 201.487686, "volume": 96715, "typical_volume": 97176.35, "trend": 194.762193, "fair_value": 165.37617, "relative_strength": -16.745683, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.51555, "energy": 52.300488, "activity_lines": [ 211.081775, 207.110099, 196.458634, 194.482518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 198.524628, "volume": 73769, "typical_volume": 91239.7, "trend": 194.546347, "fair_value": 165.869264, "relative_strength": -18.60858, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.387245, "energy": 31.558933, "activity_lines": [ 205.932266, 206.598836, 197.401143, 194.725256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 202.5, "volume": 71999, "typical_volume": 88678.05, "trend": 194.546347, "fair_value": 166.410693, "relative_strength": -16.476176, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.358527, "energy": 22.157106, "activity_lines": [ 203.339573, 206.50992, 198.638808, 195.238395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 70631, "typical_volume": 86752.55, "trend": 194.113014, "fair_value": 166.985922, "relative_strength": -17.418952, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.154161, "energy": 23.912543, "activity_lines": [ 202.895484, 206.48464, 199.979806, 195.912824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }