{ "ticker": { "uuid": "615d05ee-03fa-41df-a3d7-c1bc47df4579", "symbol": "3002", "name": "Najran Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.643, "architecture_energy": 83.938, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.611, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 16.46, "upward_expansion": 19.81, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 72.47, "downward_expansion": 95.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.588, 5.652727, 5.752333, 5.86757 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 6.04, "distance_from_trend": -0.082781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.667115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.360802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.937719, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134375, "excess_performance": -0.102546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05733, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.360802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1108440, "relative_activity": 0.645193, "balance": 0.607512, "dry_up": 0.641307, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023188, "annualized_volatility": 0.10291, "from_high_reference": -0.33253, "from_low_reference": 0.012797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.04, "fair_value_reference": 8.667115, "structural_low": 5.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.013867, "positive_rate": 0.425532, "directional_follow_through": 0.574468, "median_excess_return": -0.022307, "regime_survival": 0.93617, "best_return": 0.06392, "worst_return": -0.144947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.077058, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.073961, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.083705, "worst_return": -0.137236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125486, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.114508, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.20609, "worst_return": -0.241526, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012959, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 1722524.55, "trend": 6.128333, "fair_value": 8.821346, "relative_strength": -13.600943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.815913, "energy": 55.289015, "activity_lines": [ 5.736, 5.754545, 5.853524, 5.969204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.7, "volume": 927728, "typical_volume": 1674785.55, "trend": 6.099667, "fair_value": 8.768526, "relative_strength": -13.429259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.907147, "energy": 53.760731, "activity_lines": [ 5.722667, 5.738545, 5.828714, 5.94157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.48, "volume": 1094676, "typical_volume": 1679677.8, "trend": 6.067333, "fair_value": 8.718013, "relative_strength": -14.49099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.049821, "energy": 86.611404, "activity_lines": [ 5.635333, 5.686364, 5.785762, 5.901591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 1108440, "typical_volume": 1717997.7, "trend": 6.04, "fair_value": 8.667115, "relative_strength": -14.937719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.642635, "energy": 83.937886, "activity_lines": [ 5.588, 5.652727, 5.752333, 5.86757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }