{ "ticker": { "uuid": "616125de-8835-4cab-9834-4198f05c7286", "symbol": "ARKR", "name": "Ark Restaurants Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.488, "architecture_energy": 67.334, "architecture_maturity": 30.107, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 21.68, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 57.31, "downward_expansion": 88.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.735667, 5.808182, 6.097524, 6.290334 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.613, "trend_reference": 6.484603, "distance_from_trend": -0.134411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.65473, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.473192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.236209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19121, "excess_performance": -0.378664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.473192, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4127, "relative_activity": 0.203274, "balance": 0.395832, "dry_up": 0.25312, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070625, "annualized_volatility": 0.288345, "from_high_reference": -0.409158, "from_low_reference": 0.005914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.484603, "fair_value_reference": 10.65473, "structural_low": 5.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.002597, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.004054, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.476329, "worst_return": -0.184431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.04854, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.133933, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.101463, "worst_return": -0.197753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054795, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.265995, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.015369, "worst_return": -0.248198, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.025811, "energy": 55.05009, "activity_lines": [ 5.84, 5.984182, 6.305571, 6.446259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.94, "volume": 5503, "typical_volume": 20408.05, "trend": 6.545837, "fair_value": 10.799648, "relative_strength": -20.239641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.331277, "energy": 38.086525, "activity_lines": [ 5.863333, 5.949273, 6.251, 6.406248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 7402, "typical_volume": 20348.75, "trend": 6.513837, "fair_value": 10.727491, "relative_strength": -23.614531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.17465, "energy": 39.593794, "activity_lines": [ 5.807333, 5.873455, 6.173429, 6.348452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.613, "volume": 4127, "typical_volume": 20302.65, "trend": 6.484603, "fair_value": 10.65473, "relative_strength": -27.236209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.487554, "energy": 67.333521, "activity_lines": [ 5.735667, 5.808182, 6.097524, 6.290334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }