{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6161d7b7-d83b-4267-9038-7c7e33cf9a65", "symbol": "USRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA SRI Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.276, "architecture_energy": 64.919, "architecture_maturity": 78.498, "architecture_confidence": 65.737, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.89, "rotation_up": 52.68, "upward_expansion": 82.1, "deceleration": 71.09, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 11.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 138.151997, 137.722544, 135.690096, 133.021893 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 142.259995, "trend_reference": 130.22, "distance_from_trend": 0.092459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 121.603621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.633483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133185, "excess_performance": 0.050301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092459, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006335, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2935, "relative_activity": 1.250106, "balance": 1.096474, "dry_up": 2.669201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017725, "annualized_volatility": 0.142566, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.220487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.22, "fair_value_reference": 121.603621, "structural_low": 116.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013515, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000434, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.037336, "worst_return": -0.021512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047857, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047857, "worst_return": -0.047857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.075448, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014855, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.075448, "worst_return": 0.075448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006829, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011063, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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"volume": 8593, "typical_volume": 1869.45, "trend": 129.384667, "fair_value": 121.290351, "relative_strength": -3.466278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.111785, "energy": 55.911055, "activity_lines": [ 136.46933, 136.652727, 134.09362, 131.745721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 136.660004, "volume": 6632, "typical_volume": 2201.05, "trend": 129.754667, "fair_value": 121.424, "relative_strength": -2.074255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.236883, "energy": 45.357371, "activity_lines": [ 136.386665, 136.718909, 134.662191, 132.215098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.259995, "volume": 2935, "typical_volume": 2347.8, "trend": 130.22, "fair_value": 121.603621, "relative_strength": 0.633483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.275757, "energy": 64.918598, "activity_lines": [ 138.151997, 137.722544, 135.690096, 133.021893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }