{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6165798d-3fa3-498c-a830-b9c48ae0eb06", "symbol": "YAR", "name": "Yara International ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.035, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -51.058, "architecture_energy": 44.14, "architecture_maturity": 12.861, "architecture_confidence": 63.149, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.59, "rotation_up": 28.31, "upward_expansion": 13.62, "deceleration": 56.07, "rotation_down": 52.8, "downward_expansion": 50.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 438.693337, 442.685459, 465.389798, 474.258273 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 416.200012, "trend_reference": 474.094933, "distance_from_trend": -0.122117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 356.900189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.344669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04632, "excess_performance": -0.171314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2432742, "relative_activity": 1.111012, "balance": 0.852001, "dry_up": 1.122276, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061161, "annualized_volatility": 0.346009, "from_high_reference": -0.276069, "from_low_reference": 0.227856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 474.094933, "fair_value_reference": 356.900189, "structural_low": 416.200012, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008245, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.037229, "worst_return": -0.056341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015037, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.022282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09026, "worst_return": -0.116484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125196, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.041771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314465, "worst_return": -0.197558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 456.100006, "volume": 3024046, "typical_volume": 2490575.65, "trend": 471.149764, "fair_value": 356.228986, "relative_strength": -3.227435, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.903679, "energy": 45.093558, "activity_lines": [ 448.320001, 454.012731, 476.702741, 479.53818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 446.0, "volume": 1876326, "typical_volume": 2302115.45, "trend": 472.888818, "fair_value": 356.62694, "relative_strength": -5.802917, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.969373, "energy": 32.622923, "activity_lines": [ 448.766667, 450.350912, 472.232364, 477.915615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 416.200012, "volume": 2432742, "typical_volume": 2189663.5, "trend": 474.094933, "fair_value": 356.900189, "relative_strength": -12.344669, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.057947, "energy": 44.140492, "activity_lines": [ 438.693337, 442.685459, 465.389798, 474.258273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }