{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6165f155-23a6-41e2-bd1d-6da7784f3afa", "symbol": "2514", "name": "Long Bon International Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.981, "architecture_energy": 70.942, "architecture_maturity": 52.684, "architecture_confidence": 78.036, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.92, "rotation_up": 11.43, "upward_expansion": 13.79, "deceleration": 39.88, "rotation_down": 78.09, "downward_expansion": 91.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.423333, 12.683636, 12.953333, 13.173656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.1, "trend_reference": 13.573333, "distance_from_trend": -0.108546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.103526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.014311, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174061, "excess_performance": -0.615433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04222, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024211, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.008233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 484944, "relative_activity": 0.448832, "balance": 1.008233, "dry_up": 0.521896, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046408, "annualized_volatility": 0.166794, "from_high_reference": -0.234177, "from_low_reference": 0.008333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.573333, "fair_value_reference": 17.103526, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.011429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029168, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.107692, "worst_return": -0.07277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01138, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.064295, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.60443, "worst_return": -0.152745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051359, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.064616, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.61465, "worst_return": -0.169014, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.18984, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069307, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", 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"trend": 13.9, "fair_value": 17.208013, "relative_strength": -35.941765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.650285, "energy": 55.266622, "activity_lines": [ 13.0, 13.174545, 13.258571, 13.508817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.8, "volume": 464288, "typical_volume": 1163583.95, "trend": 13.826667, "fair_value": 17.183974, "relative_strength": -36.609084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.52921, "energy": 59.288378, "activity_lines": [ 12.896667, 13.1, 13.202143, 13.437849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 443539, "typical_volume": 1116084.4, "trend": 13.756667, "fair_value": 17.160256, "relative_strength": -34.782098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.5649, "energy": 59.017903, "activity_lines": [ 12.853333, 13.030909, 13.15381, 13.371613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.25, "volume": 862774, "typical_volume": 1096116.05, "trend": 13.661667, "fair_value": 17.132051, "relative_strength": -38.135127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.121175, "energy": 65.442218, "activity_lines": [ 12.633333, 12.864545, 13.057381, 13.274409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.1, "volume": 484944, "typical_volume": 1080457.6, "trend": 13.573333, "fair_value": 17.103526, "relative_strength": -40.014311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.98103, "energy": 70.942045, "activity_lines": [ 12.423333, 12.683636, 12.953333, 13.173656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }