{ "ticker": { "uuid": "616a765e-b5d3-4762-97b6-72a0d005a1f3", "symbol": "QLINEA", "name": "Q-linea AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.701, "architecture_energy": 28.111, "architecture_maturity": 64.361, "architecture_confidence": 62.953, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.35, "rotation_up": 25.2, "upward_expansion": 14.31, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 66.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.57, 17.532727, 17.84069, 18.885021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.85, "trend_reference": 20.624833, "distance_from_trend": -0.134538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 211.841044, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.915739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.65156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302734, "excess_performance": -0.364229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.915739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022143, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.552572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16774, "relative_activity": 0.419745, "balance": 2.552572, "dry_up": 0.589617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108597, "annualized_volatility": 0.460932, "from_high_reference": -0.675455, "from_low_reference": 0.226804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.624833, "fair_value_reference": 211.841044, "structural_low": 14.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.387755, "directional_follow_through": 0.591837, "median_excess_return": -0.07333, "regime_survival": 0.836735, "best_return": 5.46961, "worst_return": -0.891927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.118671, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.150517, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.293437, "worst_return": -0.844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.351115, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.452423, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.274648, "worst_return": -0.861096, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.743181, "energy": 26.18539, "activity_lines": [ 18.24, 17.946364, 19.153143, 20.518269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.85, "volume": 2987, "typical_volume": 38832.95, "trend": 21.805, "fair_value": 234.701193, "relative_strength": -49.065808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.53037, "energy": 39.154082, "activity_lines": [ 17.7, 17.758182, 18.809143, 20.182021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 42226, "typical_volume": 38572.95, "trend": 21.631667, "fair_value": 232.054879, "relative_strength": -44.710696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.316051, "energy": 38.055042, "activity_lines": [ 17.413333, 17.718182, 18.542643, 19.891376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 17737, "typical_volume": 37950.95, "trend": 21.4875, "fair_value": 229.406962, "relative_strength": -42.954412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.353392, "energy": 46.596845, "activity_lines": [ 17.236666, 17.625454, 18.28219, 19.595785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.5, "volume": 30169, "typical_volume": 38894.25, "trend": 21.292167, "fair_value": 222.764817, "relative_strength": -44.169853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.360769, "energy": 56.103431, "activity_lines": [ 16.96, 17.411818, 18.005214, 19.274011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.35, "volume": 29570, "typical_volume": 39817.7, "trend": 20.937167, "fair_value": 216.533602, "relative_strength": -36.784414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.704316, "energy": 36.885045, "activity_lines": [ 17.356666, 17.530909, 17.936809, 19.084193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.85, "volume": 16774, "typical_volume": 39962.4, "trend": 20.624833, "fair_value": 211.841044, "relative_strength": -37.65156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.701261, "energy": 28.110864, "activity_lines": [ 17.57, 17.532727, 17.84069, 18.885021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }