{ "ticker": { "uuid": "616b7fdf-4587-40bc-a5f5-0e17d032e90b", "symbol": "SMN", "name": "Structural Monitoring Systems Plc", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.52, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.797, "architecture_energy": 30.352, "architecture_maturity": 11.909, "architecture_confidence": 90.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.96, "rotation_up": 19.51, "upward_expansion": 4.55, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 55.5, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.382667, 0.384091, 0.390929, 0.392914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.395833, "distance_from_trend": -0.052632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.470929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.884997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096386, "excess_performance": -0.160091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1143285, "relative_activity": 3.022238, "balance": 0.926917, "dry_up": 1.417388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067179, "annualized_volatility": 0.40144, "from_high_reference": -0.330357, "from_low_reference": 0.229508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.395833, "fair_value_reference": 0.470929, "structural_low": 0.355, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.062258, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.046887, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.378788, "worst_return": -0.204819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041851, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076187, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.519481, "worst_return": -0.206186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.176058, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.075, "worst_return": -0.273585, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -8.473404, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.69114, "energy": 60.498753, "activity_lines": [ 0.376333, 0.386, 0.391476, 0.393699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.405, "volume": 521586, "typical_volume": 338061.2, "trend": 0.397, "fair_value": 0.47359, "relative_strength": -2.713161, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.586103, "energy": 27.59639, "activity_lines": [ 0.385333, 0.387727, 0.392619, 0.394333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 1143285, "typical_volume": 378290.9, "trend": 0.395833, "fair_value": 0.470929, "relative_strength": -11.884997, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.79734, "energy": 30.351717, "activity_lines": [ 0.382667, 0.384091, 0.390929, 0.392914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }