{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6170609c-ca8d-4531-b430-dc09fc024e18", "symbol": "301149", "name": "ShanDong Longhua New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.649, "architecture_energy": 69.428, "architecture_maturity": 14.571, "architecture_confidence": 86.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 11.31, "upward_expansion": 15.62, "deceleration": 38.14, "rotation_down": 69.37, "downward_expansion": 88.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.471333, 7.804447, 8.498103, 8.792311 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.86, "trend_reference": 9.056684, "distance_from_trend": -0.132133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.184331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.504667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173319, "excess_performance": -0.180719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40992276, "relative_activity": 0.616718, "balance": 0.960244, "dry_up": 0.594256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123924, "annualized_volatility": 0.451054, "from_high_reference": -0.304786, "from_low_reference": 0.147445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.056684, "fair_value_reference": 8.184331, "structural_low": 6.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003684, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001247, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.303116, "worst_return": -0.106186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068933, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007431, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.334541, "worst_return": -0.174227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108434, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.079798, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.53199, "worst_return": -0.170896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -22.204039, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.099145, "energy": 76.356853, "activity_lines": [ 7.592863, 8.078767, 8.778631, 8.986228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.29, "volume": 31877036, "typical_volume": 67325599.3, "trend": 9.064887, "fair_value": 8.185452, "relative_strength": -16.151581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.245185, "energy": 76.966157, "activity_lines": [ 7.411419, 7.865194, 8.605835, 8.870046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.86, "volume": 40992276, "typical_volume": 66468398.95, "trend": 9.056684, "fair_value": 8.184331, "relative_strength": -13.504667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.64895, "energy": 69.428397, "activity_lines": [ 7.471333, 7.804447, 8.498103, 8.792311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }