{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61711434-8ce7-47db-a615-50374a6591c1", "symbol": "JUVE", "name": "Juventus Football Club S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.51, "architecture_energy": 24.378, "architecture_maturity": 23.464, "architecture_confidence": 62.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.42, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 7.87, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 43.37, "downward_expansion": 64.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.040533, 2.052982, 2.048848, 2.074228 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.042, "trend_reference": 2.157267, "distance_from_trend": -0.053432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.5676, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.915899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139123, "excess_performance": -0.310015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040904, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3905468, "relative_activity": 1.422007, "balance": 0.566835, "dry_up": 0.966886, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048105, "annualized_volatility": 0.205204, "from_high_reference": -0.353388, "from_low_reference": 0.083864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.157267, "fair_value_reference": 2.5676, "structural_low": 1.884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027349, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.023621, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.098938, "worst_return": -0.195556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.081139, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.126458, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.059942, "worst_return": -0.249722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.169077, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.315153, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.106242, "worst_return": -0.36701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.300642, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.357276, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.126377, "worst_return": -0.376492, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04187, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.295156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00098, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.338, "volume": 1418377, "typical_volume": 2979879.6, "trend": 3.222467, "fair_value": 4.520769, "relative_strength": -2.881751, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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2.601382, "relative_strength": -28.153256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.464065, "energy": 16.207275, "activity_lines": [ 2.0816, 2.0654, 2.058229, 2.122409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.04, "volume": 1925726, "typical_volume": 2784522.6, "trend": 2.2378, "fair_value": 2.592857, "relative_strength": -27.924476, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.076907, "energy": 18.732505, "activity_lines": [ 2.065467, 2.063673, 2.054438, 2.107991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.016, "volume": 2618289, "typical_volume": 2776452.5, "trend": 2.209, "fair_value": 2.583934, "relative_strength": -27.872642, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.24019, "energy": 25.503068, "activity_lines": [ 2.0488, 2.057182, 2.049819, 2.093682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.046, "volume": 2172529, "typical_volume": 2707182.6, "trend": 2.180533, "fair_value": 2.575869, "relative_strength": -26.522846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.090802, "energy": 23.465308, "activity_lines": [ 2.045067, 2.056073, 2.049086, 2.083166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.042, "volume": 3905468, "typical_volume": 2746447.85, "trend": 2.157267, "fair_value": 2.5676, "relative_strength": -27.915899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.509519, "energy": 24.378465, "activity_lines": [ 2.040533, 2.052982, 2.048848, 2.074228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }