{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61716fa5-13bc-4445-ad98-64f254a09739", "symbol": "ITAB", "name": "ITAB Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.552, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.057, "architecture_energy": 18.862, "architecture_maturity": 21.545, "architecture_confidence": 63.625, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.45, "rotation_up": 42.12, "upward_expansion": 42.22, "deceleration": 35.64, "rotation_down": 24.71, "downward_expansion": 14.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.229333, 15.145818, 14.965714, 14.886237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 15.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.678362, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.072715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.168527, "excess_performance": -0.230021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086128, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.743919, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 950500, "relative_activity": 0.9711, "balance": 1.743919, "dry_up": 0.665404, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067837, "annualized_volatility": 0.41897, "from_high_reference": -0.319635, "from_low_reference": 0.190096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.193333, "fair_value_reference": 18.678362, "structural_low": 12.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015015, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2423, "worst_return": -0.211964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.168934, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.156423, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.523518, "worst_return": -0.286086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.204494, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.233763, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.514228, "worst_return": -0.347204, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"gate": "down", "direction": 2.990762, "energy": 13.299768, "activity_lines": [ 15.368, 15.125091, 14.83781, 14.937462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 554368, "typical_volume": 1046099.75, "trend": 15.351333, "fair_value": 18.607967, "relative_strength": -16.830049, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.930633, "energy": 16.489577, "activity_lines": [ 15.34, 15.121818, 14.874, 14.908774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.38, "volume": 327564, "typical_volume": 987867.75, "trend": 15.278, "fair_value": 18.644266, "relative_strength": -15.384377, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.344202, "energy": 29.82087, "activity_lines": [ 15.405333, 15.178182, 14.94581, 14.910624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.9, "volume": 950500, "typical_volume": 978787.0, "trend": 15.193333, "fair_value": 18.678362, "relative_strength": -19.072715, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.057106, "energy": 18.862388, "activity_lines": [ 15.229333, 15.145818, 14.965714, 14.886237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }