{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "61840493-0696-4da6-bac2-d4c8f8705246",
    "symbol": "AWSRIA",
    "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hUSD acc",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.164,
    "architecture_energy": 56.562,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.538,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.598,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.16,
        "rotation_up": 50.14,
        "upward_expansion": 78.56,
        "deceleration": 88.63,
        "rotation_down": 29.6,
        "downward_expansion": 14.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        29.993334,
        29.954909,
        29.527143,
        28.807527
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 30.635,
    "trend_reference": 27.996833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094231,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.919135,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336656,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.80888,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.170168,
    "excess_performance": 0.087285,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094231,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050899,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.336656,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010832,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028089,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077404,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.170168,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.233632,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 22527,
      "relative_activity": 0.969825,
      "balance": 1.233632,
      "dry_up": 0.883732,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021707,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158137,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00228,
      "from_low_reference": 0.287997
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 27.996833,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.919135,
      "structural_low": 24.559999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.019919,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006491,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.096906,
        "worst_return": -0.05168,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.05641,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017592,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.141034,
        "worst_return": 0.0325,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.135745,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.071699,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.153711,
        "worst_return": -0.021033,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.064366,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011677,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.298979,
        "worst_return": -0.231362,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.028741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047972,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.000482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017118,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.081771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050173,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040878,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.025178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022599,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.027891,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.136953,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
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        "return": 0.070827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 27.885,
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        "typical_volume": 24278.3,
        "trend": 26.186503,
        "fair_value": 21.822308,
        "relative_strength": 6.258463,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 61.545215,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 23990.45,
        "trend": 26.298503,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 28.940001,
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        "typical_volume": 25001.45,
        "trend": 26.414837,
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        "relative_strength": 8.836253,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 90.491396,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 29.120001,
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        "typical_volume": 26205.0,
        "trend": 26.521167,
        "fair_value": 22.061167,
        "relative_strength": 6.916282,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 76.917736,
        "energy": 89.52855,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 29.610001,
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        "typical_volume": 27142.45,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 26864.45,
        "trend": 26.772667,
        "fair_value": 22.219411,
        "relative_strength": 7.933279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 85.896949,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.288001,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 26.910667,
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        "relative_strength": 6.548031,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 22.454462,
        "relative_strength": 2.590493,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.286331,
        "energy": 79.522439,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.766333,
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          27.868409
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 30.315001,
        "volume": 16115,
        "typical_volume": 23521.8,
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        "fair_value": 22.536302,
        "relative_strength": 2.893475,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.047533,
        "energy": 83.294427,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.971334,
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          28.067032
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 30.285,
        "volume": 26142,
        "typical_volume": 24076.85,
        "trend": 27.514834,
        "fair_value": 22.613578,
        "relative_strength": 4.028957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.045162,
        "energy": 84.1683,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.119334,
          29.853819,
          28.909667,
          28.254441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 29.49,
        "volume": 13456,
        "typical_volume": 24327.3,
        "trend": 27.637334,
        "fair_value": 22.686475,
        "relative_strength": 0.489205,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.58171,
        "energy": 62.331193,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.938,
          29.830182,
          29.053215,
          28.381871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 29.34,
        "volume": 17549,
        "typical_volume": 24229.1,
        "trend": 27.74,
        "fair_value": 22.758052,
        "relative_strength": 0.0768,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.276403,
        "energy": 52.851355,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.721,
          29.771091,
          29.171119,
          28.491721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 29.860001,
        "volume": 28577,
        "typical_volume": 22322.85,
        "trend": 27.86,
        "fair_value": 22.83527,
        "relative_strength": 1.673612,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.513807,
        "energy": 45.107597,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.734334,
          29.799273,
          29.322715,
          28.628495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 30.635,
        "volume": 22527,
        "typical_volume": 23227.9,
        "trend": 27.996833,
        "fair_value": 22.919135,
        "relative_strength": 2.80888,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.163841,
        "energy": 56.561812,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.993334,
          29.954909,
          29.527143,
          28.807527
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}