{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6184cf58-513f-4b72-b919-477efe5bbfde", "symbol": "NRGD", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy -2x Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.564, "architecture_energy": 68.104, "architecture_maturity": 18.8, "architecture_confidence": 83.344, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.05, "rotation_up": 11.87, "upward_expansion": 16.66, "deceleration": 35.53, "rotation_down": 69.7, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.113333, 7.589455, 7.693143, 8.013226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.45, "trend_reference": 8.869, "distance_from_trend": -0.159995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.649359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.655879, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.553488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.371838, "excess_performance": -0.492259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.655879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.485535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75800, "relative_activity": 0.872669, "balance": 0.622123, "dry_up": 0.81971, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103769, "annualized_volatility": 0.611436, "from_high_reference": -0.658883, "from_low_reference": 0.155039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.869, "fair_value_reference": 21.649359, "structural_low": 6.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.078154, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.473054, "worst_return": -0.324834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.056998, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.116523, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.213997, "worst_return": -0.550786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.281504, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.401204, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.060774, "worst_return": -0.51338, "sufficient": true }, { 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60400, "typical_volume": 85465.0, "trend": 9.442, "fair_value": 21.985769, "relative_strength": -54.700818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.423723, "energy": 41.476258, "activity_lines": [ 7.648667, 7.893818, 7.858714, 8.309527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 104800, "typical_volume": 86160.0, "trend": 9.150667, "fair_value": 21.808526, "relative_strength": -54.512138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.745209, "energy": 72.172845, "activity_lines": [ 7.148667, 7.657818, 7.727571, 8.122946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.45, "volume": 75800, "typical_volume": 86860.0, "trend": 8.869, "fair_value": 21.649359, "relative_strength": -48.553488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.564053, "energy": 68.103784, "activity_lines": [ 7.113333, 7.589455, 7.693143, 8.013226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }