{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61892452-cac1-428a-a890-46578cd14a8c", "symbol": "CBUSE", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.593, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.318, "architecture_energy": 73.103, "architecture_maturity": 5.021, "architecture_confidence": 79.558, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.66, "rotation_up": 8.63, "upward_expansion": 16.71, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 73.12, "downward_expansion": 90.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.403067, 17.501346, 17.569972, 17.605514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.436001, "trend_reference": 17.661467, "distance_from_trend": -0.012766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.060474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.727281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019348, "excess_performance": -0.190239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.751668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19890, "relative_activity": 0.416407, "balance": 1.751668, "dry_up": 1.530469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009247, "annualized_volatility": 0.052807, "from_high_reference": -0.041978, "from_low_reference": 0.008211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.661467, "fair_value_reference": 17.060474, "structural_low": 17.294001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015669, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.009207, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.060673, "worst_return": -0.050482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003448, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.059555, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086318, "worst_return": -0.102003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110413, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.035459, "worst_return": -0.131633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"energy": 17.298204, "activity_lines": [ 17.659734, 17.660727, 17.65621, 17.679097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.544001, "volume": 80461, "typical_volume": 50065.3, "trend": 17.700067, "fair_value": 17.036551, "relative_strength": -13.465942, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.037176, "energy": 32.935196, "activity_lines": [ 17.614, 17.641309, 17.644848, 17.668581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.336, "volume": 149708, "typical_volume": 55743.8, "trend": 17.6868, "fair_value": 17.043462, "relative_strength": -13.974729, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.009607, "energy": 65.827641, "activity_lines": [ 17.509867, 17.586727, 17.615733, 17.645093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.309999, "volume": 42357, "typical_volume": 49862.95, "trend": 17.672667, "fair_value": 17.051218, "relative_strength": -14.268328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.291086, "energy": 78.119495, "activity_lines": [ 17.419733, 17.530473, 17.586324, 17.620783 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.436001, "volume": 19890, "typical_volume": 47765.75, "trend": 17.661467, "fair_value": 17.060474, "relative_strength": -15.727281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.318193, "energy": 73.102887, "activity_lines": [ 17.403067, 17.501346, 17.569972, 17.605514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }