{ "ticker": { "uuid": "618a0314-6235-4301-83e5-121b8037670f", "symbol": "VLUE", "name": "VanEck MSCI International Value ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.427, "architecture_energy": 51.231, "architecture_maturity": 28.61, "architecture_confidence": 91.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 56.87, "upward_expansion": 80.48, "deceleration": 58.38, "rotation_down": 22.28, "downward_expansion": 7.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.148667, 36.920367, 36.028457, 35.509848 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.939999, "trend_reference": 35.012278, "distance_from_trend": 0.08362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.886537, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.011561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093687, "excess_performance": 0.029981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157047, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070116, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059218, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.073571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201821, "relative_activity": 0.854657, "balance": 6.073571, "dry_up": 2.499545, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03299, "annualized_volatility": 0.243897, "from_high_reference": -0.025681, "from_low_reference": 0.293997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.012278, "fair_value_reference": 27.886537, "structural_low": 30.077632, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.018806, "positive_rate": 0.771429, "directional_follow_through": 0.771429, "median_excess_return": 0.009614, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.057672, "worst_return": -0.072683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.044127, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.033077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.113402, "worst_return": -0.040741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080003, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06116, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.129301, "worst_return": 0.055242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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153062.85, "trend": 34.757945, "fair_value": 27.692382, "relative_strength": 9.216626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.476055, "energy": 39.764031, "activity_lines": [ 36.532863, 36.43675, 35.525774, 35.146852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.330002, "volume": 1623197, "typical_volume": 229069.5, "trend": 34.885612, "fair_value": 27.788159, "relative_strength": 9.085678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.570404, "energy": 47.862649, "activity_lines": [ 36.75, 36.65177, 35.758021, 35.312791 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.939999, "volume": 201821, "typical_volume": 236142.6, "trend": 35.012278, "fair_value": 27.886537, "relative_strength": 7.011561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.426502, "energy": 51.230974, "activity_lines": [ 37.148667, 36.920367, 36.028457, 35.509848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }