{ "ticker": { "uuid": "618ae637-4bf3-4720-9630-ebb6ab6a07eb", "symbol": "PAVU", "name": "Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.549, "architecture_energy": 37.168, "architecture_maturity": 53.52, "architecture_confidence": 92.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.29, "rotation_up": 39.38, "upward_expansion": 63.33, "deceleration": 88.04, "rotation_down": 26.39, "downward_expansion": 15.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.548762, 52.605812, 52.201794, 51.345324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.715, "trend_reference": 50.280137, "distance_from_trend": 0.068315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.851484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.849359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080513, "excess_performance": 0.029278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.146621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260, "relative_activity": 0.242605, "balance": 3.146621, "dry_up": 2.460577, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024803, "annualized_volatility": 0.183128, "from_high_reference": -0.003477, "from_low_reference": 0.299781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.280137, "fair_value_reference": 38.851484, "structural_low": 45.064999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004443, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.009436, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.120288, "worst_return": -0.065432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082969, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.042835, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.176203, "worst_return": -0.146321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134811, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239921, "worst_return": 0.082266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.209485, "energy": 78.622647, "activity_lines": [ 53.100408, 52.550091, 51.350692, 50.433997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.986427, "volume": 503, "typical_volume": 549.35, "trend": 49.260305, "fair_value": 38.245563, "relative_strength": 5.876149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.286315, "energy": 57.297821, "activity_lines": [ 52.750498, 52.516518, 51.512717, 50.62589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.715, "volume": 588, "typical_volume": 573.75, "trend": 49.513864, "fair_value": 38.393323, "relative_strength": 4.17929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.534483, "energy": 40.855607, "activity_lines": [ 52.343018, 52.428478, 51.642314, 50.784257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.959999, "volume": 9483, "typical_volume": 1047.85, "trend": 49.789961, "fair_value": 38.547667, "relative_strength": 5.209259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.607251, "energy": 35.139069, "activity_lines": [ 52.426844, 52.571711, 51.883077, 51.006589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.34, "volume": 217, "typical_volume": 1058.7, "trend": 50.014636, "fair_value": 38.69225, "relative_strength": 0.655237, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.149213, "energy": 22.477737, "activity_lines": [ 52.006555, 52.383125, 51.942305, 51.106591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.715, "volume": 260, "typical_volume": 1071.7, "trend": 50.280137, "fair_value": 38.851484, "relative_strength": 4.849359, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.549166, "energy": 37.16753, "activity_lines": [ 52.548762, 52.605812, 52.201794, 51.345324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }