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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.625, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.566, "architecture_energy": 10.188, "architecture_maturity": 76.048, "architecture_confidence": 70.951, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.46, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 63.31, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 28.13, "downward_expansion": 15.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.632667, 17.887455, 17.670108, 17.325909 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.85, "trend_reference": 16.939413, "distance_from_trend": -0.064312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.101806, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.879257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074578, "excess_performance": -0.200203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067836, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116773, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3135683, "relative_activity": 3.021507, "balance": 0.490123, "dry_up": 1.483512, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068811, "annualized_volatility": 0.289828, "from_high_reference": -0.172972, "from_low_reference": 0.30983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.939413, "fair_value_reference": 17.101806, 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.024107, "energy": 66.658072, "activity_lines": [ 18.340667, 18.042909, 17.52502, 17.168715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.79, "volume": 997816, "typical_volume": 987747.4, "trend": 16.847153, "fair_value": 17.224854, "relative_strength": 11.985973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.023, "energy": 65.349629, "activity_lines": [ 18.544667, 18.227273, 17.694287, 17.302065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.31, "volume": 1001765, "typical_volume": 946075.05, "trend": 16.943258, "fair_value": 17.1675, "relative_strength": 7.721555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.316272, "energy": 47.703748, "activity_lines": [ 18.498, 18.289455, 17.805548, 17.396442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 3135683, "typical_volume": 1037787.7, "trend": 16.939413, "fair_value": 17.101806, "relative_strength": -9.879257, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.565988, "energy": 10.188003, "activity_lines": [ 17.632667, 17.887455, 17.670108, 17.325909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }