{ "ticker": { "uuid": "618f3d2d-dbf0-4a9e-9a17-bc3a2d6174c0", "symbol": "8941", "name": "Grand Hall Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.043, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.618, "architecture_energy": 9.641, "architecture_maturity": 13.934, "architecture_confidence": 76.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.01, "rotation_up": 33.23, "upward_expansion": 32.09, "deceleration": 40.37, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 40.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.683334, 43.397057, 43.19141, 43.469146 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 44.200001, "trend_reference": 43.9532, "distance_from_trend": 0.005615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.690415, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144909, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.849107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026387, "excess_performance": -0.467759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144909, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004689, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.893273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56120, "relative_activity": 0.931361, "balance": 0.893273, "dry_up": 0.555917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03162, "annualized_volatility": 0.092809, "from_high_reference": -0.116712, "from_low_reference": 0.074212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.9532, "fair_value_reference": 51.690415, "structural_low": 41.146431, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002141, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.020619, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.036011, "worst_return": -0.180124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06768, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.031421, "worst_return": -0.224852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.050222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.205034, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.010666, "worst_return": 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43.787057, "fair_value": 51.591302, "relative_strength": -38.347096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.035217, "energy": 36.263167, "activity_lines": [ 42.561841, 42.653263, 43.210002, 43.598401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.0, "volume": 19000, "typical_volume": 55665.55, "trend": 43.804861, "fair_value": 51.614258, "relative_strength": -35.697877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.247731, "energy": 23.397015, "activity_lines": [ 42.755877, 42.687214, 43.134494, 43.547623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.599998, "volume": 148150, "typical_volume": 60823.05, "trend": 43.805201, "fair_value": 51.631942, "relative_strength": -29.467028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.018973, "energy": 17.180395, "activity_lines": [ 43.107787, 42.833872, 43.127315, 43.534406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.5, "volume": 38250, "typical_volume": 61018.05, "trend": 43.847817, "fair_value": 51.644397, "relative_strength": -30.067293, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.145754, "energy": 20.119239, "activity_lines": [ 43.308402, 42.955055, 43.119871, 43.514716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.349998, "volume": 19499, "typical_volume": 61079.55, "trend": 43.888691, "fair_value": 51.657813, "relative_strength": -28.270583, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.251025, "energy": 17.361741, "activity_lines": [ 43.393332, 43.053264, 43.107412, 43.482598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.400002, "volume": 20120, "typical_volume": 59235.05, "trend": 43.919829, "fair_value": 51.67155, "relative_strength": -28.782971, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.864173, "energy": 12.920252, "activity_lines": [ 43.406667, 43.159593, 43.108304, 43.45107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 44.200001, "volume": 56120, "typical_volume": 60255.9, "trend": 43.9532, "fair_value": 51.690415, "relative_strength": -28.849107, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.618157, "energy": 9.641322, "activity_lines": [ 43.683334, 43.397057, 43.19141, 43.469146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }