{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61910527-1c5c-4eb2-89ea-15ea913b9982", "symbol": "ATRA", "name": "Atara Biotherapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.926, "architecture_energy": 25.465, "architecture_maturity": 65.972, "architecture_confidence": 77.143, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.31, "rotation_up": 20.37, "upward_expansion": 54.34, "deceleration": 90.52, "rotation_down": 40.42, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.400667, 9.120909, 8.992476, 8.179677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.45, "trend_reference": 7.118333, "distance_from_trend": 0.187076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.987196, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.349359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.44017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.731557, "excess_performance": 0.544104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.349359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135566, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030865, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.731557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.860567, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174110, "relative_activity": 0.03891, "balance": 2.860567, "dry_up": 0.071814, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20235, "annualized_volatility": 1.117963, "from_high_reference": -0.558631, "from_low_reference": 1.155612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.118333, "fair_value_reference": 12.987196, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.097839, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.094383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255117, "worst_return": -0.059439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.445186, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.411391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.195927, "worst_return": -0.694444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.451389, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.449171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.283626, "worst_return": -0.619152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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30.065737, "activity_lines": [ 9.802, 10.024909, 8.885476, 8.056151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.9, "volume": 258335, "typical_volume": 4738137.3, "trend": 7.605333, "fair_value": 13.582837, "relative_strength": -29.676428, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.861178, "energy": 19.192443, "activity_lines": [ 9.076667, 9.632182, 8.900095, 8.055011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.38, "volume": 318484, "typical_volume": 4507502.7, "trend": 7.292333, "fair_value": 13.267965, "relative_strength": -25.043114, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.183285, "energy": 23.420015, "activity_lines": [ 8.656, 9.357273, 8.947429, 8.104989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.45, "volume": 174110, "typical_volume": 4474693.95, "trend": 7.118333, "fair_value": 12.987196, "relative_strength": -27.44017, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.925901, "energy": 25.465272, "activity_lines": [ 8.400667, 9.120909, 8.992476, 8.179677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }