{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6197b50c-f59a-4612-b537-d9f881d269ac", "symbol": "ODI", "name": "ODI Pharma AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.773, "architecture_energy": 41.761, "architecture_maturity": 34.537, "architecture_confidence": 94.803, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.97, "rotation_up": 25.26, "upward_expansion": 10.85, "deceleration": 48.03, "rotation_down": 47.87, "downward_expansion": 75.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.441333, 2.444, 2.838762, 3.106667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.72, "trend_reference": 3.39, "distance_from_trend": -0.19764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.800987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.798875, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272727, "excess_performance": -0.334222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41504, "relative_activity": 1.26878, "balance": 0.512248, "dry_up": 0.683524, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233032, "annualized_volatility": 0.720218, "from_high_reference": -0.500917, "from_low_reference": 1.72 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.39, "fair_value_reference": 3.800987, "structural_low": 2.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.005306, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.014086, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.353846, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019792, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00658, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.465753, "worst_return": -0.405172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.079065, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.821918, "worst_return": -0.461207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.635776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182609, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.5, "volume": 23167, "typical_volume": 9377.45, "trend": 5.009, "fair_value": 5.100449, "relative_strength": 11.374506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.070629, "energy": 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48.873335, "activity_lines": [ 2.941333, 3.309818, 3.564381, 3.615312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.56, "volume": 9555, "typical_volume": 47576.85, "trend": 3.532333, "fair_value": 3.911372, "relative_strength": -11.832824, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.337822, "energy": 54.486487, "activity_lines": [ 2.753333, 3.124364, 3.457429, 3.55443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.24, "volume": 175, "typical_volume": 44668.45, "trend": 3.550667, "fair_value": 3.895346, "relative_strength": -25.089222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.918014, "energy": 66.283938, "activity_lines": [ 2.546667, 2.902909, 3.325619, 3.471054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.3, "volume": 9339, "typical_volume": 44224.65, "trend": 3.568667, "fair_value": 3.879064, "relative_strength": -20.731414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.863849, "energy": 64.459293, "activity_lines": [ 2.433333, 2.733818, 3.205619, 3.390366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.3, "volume": 25898, "typical_volume": 35898.2, "trend": 3.525333, "fair_value": 3.85823, "relative_strength": -19.862659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.619774, "energy": 60.557955, "activity_lines": [ 2.348, 2.601818, 3.091238, 3.308516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 17266, "typical_volume": 32289.75, "trend": 3.494, "fair_value": 3.838872, "relative_strength": -22.098894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.242048, "energy": 62.869069, "activity_lines": [ 2.302667, 2.492, 2.983238, 3.228172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.32, "volume": 4769, "typical_volume": 31564.9, "trend": 3.429333, "fair_value": 3.82073, "relative_strength": -21.997183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.535109, "energy": 62.804976, "activity_lines": [ 2.297333, 2.417455, 2.88781, 3.15243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.72, "volume": 41504, "typical_volume": 32711.75, "trend": 3.39, "fair_value": 3.800987, "relative_strength": -10.798875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.772676, "energy": 41.760838, "activity_lines": [ 2.441333, 2.444, 2.838762, 3.106667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }