{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61990da5-1aae-421c-ab27-e10cb36d0c8a", "symbol": "CAR", "name": "Avis Budget Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.171, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.831, "architecture_energy": 61.964, "architecture_maturity": 14.25, "architecture_confidence": 61.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.19, "rotation_up": 19.02, "upward_expansion": 22.33, "deceleration": 43.08, "rotation_down": 70.42, "downward_expansion": 66.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.762, 156.276545, 171.416286, 171.445312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 142.18, "trend_reference": 163.072667, "distance_from_trend": -0.128119, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.727362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.615445, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.180701, "excess_performance": -0.006753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066215, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.569978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2126969, "relative_activity": 0.218726, "balance": 1.569978, "dry_up": 0.273207, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138436, "annualized_volatility": 1.802886, "from_high_reference": -0.832276, "from_low_reference": 0.654025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 163.072667, "fair_value_reference": 133.727362, "structural_low": 85.96, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03675, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051931, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153402, "worst_return": -0.104291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033872, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037704, "worst_return": -0.145857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084795, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.103798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228078, "worst_return": -0.283103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 135.049523, "relative_strength": -7.796502, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.056598, "energy": 15.19431, "activity_lines": [ 162.622667, 168.535273, 182.621333, 174.491699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 159.48, "volume": 2478694, "typical_volume": 9722382.95, "trend": 162.31, "fair_value": 134.716324, "relative_strength": -5.97381, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.131077, "energy": 43.618992, "activity_lines": [ 160.108, 166.767273, 180.390238, 174.368366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.44, "volume": 4087132, "typical_volume": 9792206.1, "trend": 162.617333, "fair_value": 134.224779, "relative_strength": -18.796532, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.832309, "energy": 57.319814, "activity_lines": [ 152.176667, 160.821818, 175.765, 172.763849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.18, "volume": 2126969, "typical_volume": 9724341.95, "trend": 163.072667, "fair_value": 133.727362, "relative_strength": -19.615445, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.831183, "energy": 61.964257, "activity_lines": [ 147.762, 156.276545, 171.416286, 171.445312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }