{ "ticker": { "uuid": "619a33c9-4b8b-4455-981e-e6c740999a0a", "symbol": "688087", "name": "Intco Recycling Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.886, "architecture_energy": 11.234, "architecture_maturity": 20.963, "architecture_confidence": 72.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.38, "rotation_up": 44.17, "upward_expansion": 31.33, "deceleration": 44.23, "rotation_down": 18.13, "downward_expansion": 17.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.53, 37.50766, 38.228071, 38.319892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.049999, "trend_reference": 37.573216, "distance_from_trend": 0.065919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.481723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.300538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.252345, "excess_performance": 0.295549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.406165, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.193005, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.252345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9484282, "relative_activity": 0.797021, "balance": 0.612399, "dry_up": 1.019326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119712, "annualized_volatility": 0.622908, "from_high_reference": -0.15, "from_low_reference": 0.567336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.573216, "fair_value_reference": 28.481723, "structural_low": 30.190001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00701, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00804, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.121934, "worst_return": -0.128359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056098, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.024964, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.093454, "worst_return": -0.262419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029058, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003778, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.177629, "worst_return": -0.234771, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.381799, "energy": 25.547756, "activity_lines": [ 35.864181, 36.994447, 38.53567, 37.994334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.18, "volume": 13762331, "typical_volume": 15089884.2, "trend": 36.820549, "fair_value": 28.174655, "relative_strength": 14.762929, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.339251, "energy": 28.255908, "activity_lines": [ 35.751287, 36.59721, 38.256163, 37.964557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.939999, "volume": 11277943, "typical_volume": 13750360.8, "trend": 36.976216, "fair_value": 28.260361, "relative_strength": 15.039872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.304031, "energy": 11.07657, "activity_lines": [ 36.139333, 36.476696, 38.042608, 37.972263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.580002, "volume": 13993950, "typical_volume": 12591453.3, "trend": 37.265549, "fair_value": 28.365773, "relative_strength": 21.905667, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.156906, "energy": 4.259462, "activity_lines": [ 37.509334, 36.928842, 38.112435, 38.14025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.049999, "volume": 9484282, "typical_volume": 11899657.1, "trend": 37.573216, "fair_value": 28.481723, "relative_strength": 19.300538, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.886313, "energy": 11.23404, "activity_lines": [ 38.53, 37.50766, 38.228071, 38.319892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }