{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61a2a409-dd25-4315-bcce-bd69c09561fb", "symbol": "3704", "name": "Zyxel Group Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.928, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.498, "architecture_energy": 19.997, "architecture_maturity": 48.425, "architecture_confidence": 77.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.95, "rotation_up": 33.62, "upward_expansion": 58.89, "deceleration": 84.84, "rotation_down": 25.02, "downward_expansion": 17.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.409999, 44.830763, 43.838726, 41.618506 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.849998, "trend_reference": 38.962236, "distance_from_trend": 0.125449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.288757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.281881, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.314318, "excess_performance": -0.127054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153213, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.453656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33624178, "relative_activity": 1.516542, "balance": 2.453656, "dry_up": 0.867631, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138229, "annualized_volatility": 0.471307, "from_high_reference": -0.139556, "from_low_reference": 0.650254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.962236, "fair_value_reference": 38.288757, "structural_low": 29.744409, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021562, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.016957, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.086137, "worst_return": -0.096045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052497, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.086116, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.456258, "worst_return": -0.121183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015389, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025496, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.356073, "worst_return": -0.041237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.799999, "volume": 15255482, "typical_volume": 20562522.7, "trend": 37.824462, "fair_value": 38.403855, "relative_strength": -3.819322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.767001, "energy": 43.616982, "activity_lines": [ 45.905576, 45.825737, 42.914896, 40.549015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.400002, "volume": 10769414, "typical_volume": 20683887.85, "trend": 38.123749, "fair_value": 38.329092, "relative_strength": -13.517778, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.143626, "energy": 27.208589, "activity_lines": [ 44.57, 45.048289, 43.053374, 40.779695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.849998, "volume": 17298027, "typical_volume": 20871194.35, "trend": 38.574673, "fair_value": 38.307067, "relative_strength": -6.353578, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.08534, "energy": 26.385321, "activity_lines": [ 44.8, 45.120389, 43.571963, 41.278163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 43.849998, "volume": 33624178, "typical_volume": 22171608.0, "trend": 38.962236, "fair_value": 38.288757, "relative_strength": -13.281881, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.497897, "energy": 19.997248, "activity_lines": [ 44.409999, 44.830763, 43.838726, 41.618506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }