{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61a2c931-720f-4766-915a-a4ac3b3d3b5f", "symbol": "7224", "name": "ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.733, "architecture_energy": 59.777, "architecture_maturity": 52.548, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 27.63, "upward_expansion": 10.83, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 53.87, "downward_expansion": 84.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1943.533333, 1962.909091, 2003.371429, 2089.291148 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1960.0, "trend_reference": 2210.593164, "distance_from_trend": -0.11336, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1569.35507, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248921, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.845967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174382, "excess_performance": -0.392592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11336, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030461, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057511, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 586200, "relative_activity": 1.056502, "balance": 0.438762, "dry_up": 1.33437, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037441, "annualized_volatility": 0.296275, "from_high_reference": -0.281525, "from_low_reference": 0.142358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2210.593164, "fair_value_reference": 1569.35507, "structural_low": 1849.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004571, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020178, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.068282, "worst_return": -0.073071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011906, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.030083, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127292, "worst_return": -0.000137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130069, "worst_return": 0.021208, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 76.580965, "activity_lines": [ 1994.8, 1998.490909, 2078.952381, 2170.301955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 1979.0, "volume": 625000, "typical_volume": 622110.0, "trend": 2271.55717, "fair_value": 1555.772555, "relative_strength": -21.002305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.686928, "energy": 76.138662, "activity_lines": [ 1988.466667, 1991.909091, 2059.619048, 2151.036977 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 1946.0, "volume": 968200, "typical_volume": 624190.0, "trend": 2255.512175, "fair_value": 1559.915884, "relative_strength": -20.260804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.57881, "energy": 78.161166, "activity_lines": [ 1973.466667, 1982.109091, 2039.72381, 2130.033289 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 1897.0, "volume": 782100, "typical_volume": 595330.0, "trend": 2232.991008, "fair_value": 1564.43065, "relative_strength": -20.593514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.468274, "energy": 73.113761, "activity_lines": [ 1943.933333, 1965.4, 2017.1, 2106.903471 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 1960.0, "volume": 586200, "typical_volume": 554850.0, "trend": 2210.593164, "fair_value": 1569.35507, "relative_strength": -18.845967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.73327, "energy": 59.777335, "activity_lines": [ 1943.533333, 1962.909091, 2003.371429, 2089.291148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }