{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61a6b1db-460c-47ce-8937-8ca64df464c2", "symbol": "603351", "name": "Nanjing Well Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.897, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.488, "architecture_energy": 46.927, "architecture_maturity": 14.398, "architecture_confidence": 91.3, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.52, "rotation_up": 17.49, "upward_expansion": 14.57, "deceleration": 33.68, "rotation_down": 56.5, "downward_expansion": 80.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.402, 24.796909, 25.195598, 25.440502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.76, "trend_reference": 25.888827, "distance_from_trend": -0.004976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.952524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.545658, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07438, "excess_performance": -0.031176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.212648, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6708372, "relative_activity": 1.278792, "balance": 0.212648, "dry_up": 1.406191, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07521, "annualized_volatility": 0.320831, "from_high_reference": -0.226426, "from_low_reference": 0.176256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.888827, "fair_value_reference": 24.952524, "structural_low": 21.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.013048, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011461, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.436949, "worst_return": -0.134212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009984, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.034263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265784, "worst_return": -0.066128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10435, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028292, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.884929, "worst_return": -0.134559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"volume": 11505212, "typical_volume": 4413458.6, "trend": 26.147494, "fair_value": 25.005012, "relative_strength": -7.164351, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.682503, "energy": 14.294557, "activity_lines": [ 25.798667, 25.684576, 25.725737, 25.923834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.42, "volume": 10179536, "typical_volume": 4771193.2, "trend": 26.094494, "fair_value": 24.994382, "relative_strength": -6.138638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.598252, "energy": 23.977367, "activity_lines": [ 25.413334, 25.42935, 25.596, 25.812383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.27, "volume": 6725944, "typical_volume": 4896658.8, "trend": 26.00216, "fair_value": 24.967966, "relative_strength": -11.105545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.469321, "energy": 31.134375, "activity_lines": [ 24.722667, 25.01036, 25.370406, 25.630157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 5892900, "typical_volume": 5062862.0, "trend": 25.897494, "fair_value": 24.950887, "relative_strength": -11.233227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.211983, "energy": 61.954687, "activity_lines": [ 24.104, 24.644524, 25.153859, 25.449373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.76, "volume": 6708372, "typical_volume": 5245864.4, "trend": 25.888827, "fair_value": 24.952524, "relative_strength": -3.545658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.487996, "energy": 46.926678, "activity_lines": [ 24.402, 24.796909, 25.195598, 25.440502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }